Price Action That Matters

[springger]

Diablo, glad to see that there are other aviation stakeholders in here.

Formalities aside, Gbpcad seems a bit tricky trade. My analysis is a bit different, but I usually start from the HTF’s and drill down to the LTF’s to spot potential hurdles.

Weekly shows that price have just left an area of sideways movement, and just attempting to test the upper limit. Also interesting to note is a gap, of to the left.

Daily shows a 2 bar reversal pattern, with respect to the previous range. Given that Fridays are notorious for reversing some of the weeks’ price movements; I’m starting to view the candle with skepticism.

H4, We see price has been in a smaller sideways range since roughly the 3rd of October. Pardon the Fib retracement, as I trade what I see, and those are the swings I see on my H4 charts. Interesting how the SR confluences with the SR flip, but keep in mind it was moved in this time frame to better suit the O/C.

Since I trade of the H4 primarily, I would prefer see a retrace to the lower limits of the H4 range. Like I tell everyone, trade what you see, not what you expect.

[krugman25]

missed a bit of the thread here,have we covered volume yet ?I know it was one of the things on Aarons list.

Hey buster, it’s easy to do as this thread moves at lighting speed. I have been including volume in my chart analysis because I want everyone to know the entirety of my thought process when I analyze trades, but I have not officially laid out volume. Volume is going to be a little bit down the road yet, is it is supplemental to trading and a necessity. I want to make sure I cover all of the core PA first before I lay out a more in depth article on volume. It may be though that people piece together enough information from my chart analysis to begin effectively using it. Thanks for the comment and it has been noted there is demand for more information about how I use it.

[krugman25]

I would have to commend Aaron for taking the time to organize this thread on babypips and then to go on and start a website. The easy thing for him to do is absolutely nothing! If he chooses to go on someday and charge for things that will be up to him to decide and the individual as well if they want to spend their money. Until that time happens, I am open to learning more of what he has to say. I am a student of this business. The way we all learn new skills is by taking the things that work for us, and leaving the things behind that are not working. The same should apply here.
All the information to successfully trade price action methods is here, or on other free websites such as Johnathon’s or Nial’s site, (excluding their pay forums), or any of the other forums or guru’s you can simply Google on the web. The only advantage of the pay forums is there are moderators that ensure the integrity of the forum so everyone trades the same way. If you don’t conform to the rules, you can be kicked out of the pay forums. You notice I did not mention course materials, or specially created indicators by the forex guru. The reason is you don’t need them to trade pure price action successfully.
Many retail traders lose money in this business is they do not take the time to find a trading strategy that fits their personality / lifestyle, and they do not give the strategy time so they never have a chance at mastering it. Phycology is an entirely separate subject. If you like this thread, you should stay to learn and hopefully contribute when you feel comfortable doing so.
Trading price action strategies off the daily candles is how I trade. It fits my personality / lifestyle. I work about 60/wk and do not have time to read the news or trade the 5/15 minute charts.
I look forward to reading this thread and Aaron’s site in the weeks/months to come to help me learn more in this business that I love.

Good trading to all.

All I can say is wow and thank you! Comments like this really make my day. There is not much I can add to this except to say thank you and as long as there are people interested in what I am teaching, I will keep on producing it. I look forward talking more in the days to come!

[krugman25]

Alright, i promised to present myself some time ago and now i finally have time to it so here we go.

My name is Sascha, i’m 32 years old and i live together with my soon-to-be wife in Stockholm which is the capital of Sweden. No kids (yet).

I currently work at swedens biggest Airport, Arlanda as a training manager for a company with 700 employees (at 7 airports) in sweden and total of 2500 employees in scandinavia (at +30 airports). It is my responsibility to see to that all staff (in sweden) has the correct training as required by authorities, organizations, customers and our company in the aviation business. I am also the one who creates all the training material and trains our instructors. On top of that i am an instructor myself for the safe transport of dangerous goods by air and for all ramp related trainings.

Next year i will start working for another similar but smaller company as an Quality & Training Manager.

Since everyone mentioned their view on religion i can share mine as well. Over the last couple of years I’ve thought about religion a lot, even though i never have been very religious myself. The reason for that is that i do not feel any need to believe in any god or higher being. If there is A god or many gods, it simply put does not make any change in my life since i feel i am responsible for everything that happens in my life myself and i think everything else in the world happens randomly and is not controlled from anywhere. Even though, strangely many things in life add up pretty perfectly when you start to look back at your life which i have to admit is very interesting.

But nonetheless i would say i have a religion myself. My religion is that i think everyone should be allowed to believe in whatever they want to and what helps them in their life’s as long as that believe does not hurt any other being on this planet. Even if my neighbor would believe that there is a man in the moon or a ghost in the tree across the street that should be totally OK with everybody in this world. Whatever makes you happy and gives you support in your life is yours to believe in and yours to keep and cherish. I must admit i have big problems with religions that tell people of other believes what is right and what is wrong, what you are allowed and what not. Everyone is entitled to believe in what they want.

The universe is a fantastic place and the free will is the biggest gift we have and that should not be taken from anyone. As a great writer once said: “Creation of life is the universes way of playing with matter and the universes way of looking at itself”.

My biggest passion in life is investing and trading. I’ve invested in the stock market for the last 10 years and like many things when you start doing it, it’s not going so well in the beginning. For me that was no exception. But over time you get better and the last 2 years have been really good to my capital.

The main reason i came to forex is because of the tremendous possibilities of building your capital without the need of starting a big company and invest a ton of money (except education of course). Another reason is that you always need growth in the world to make money in the stock markets. And growth is like you know not always consistent which sometimes makes it hard to earn money from stocks unless you short them of course.

But the forex market is a much better choice, mainly due to it’s size, volatility and of course it’s not depending on growth. Even if the financial markets crash this is a good thing in forex since you get huge moves/trends which you can hop on. And this is why i am here trying to learn as much as i can. And my goal which i want to reach within 5 years is to be a full time-trader and manage funds for clients. I’m unique with that goal in here right?

The first year i focused on harmonic patterns which i am pretty good at now if i may say it myself. But as any other trading strategy harmonic patterns can be traded in many different ways.

Because i only have limited time to look at the charts (once a day) i looked for a trading style that would fit my schedule and that is why i am now focusing on price action. There are very few harmonic patterns on the daily charts. But maybe in the future i will combine it with harmonic patterns which many people i know do successfully.

That is my “short” introduction. I hope i did not put you to sleep.

Thank you for the honest and candid introduction of yourself. We are all glad to have you here and you have already been a great contributor to the thread here and I want to personally thank you for that. People like you have helped make this thing a success and your presence here will keep it a success.

I am always amazed reading peoples introductions here, where they live, where they work and their passions and hobbies. I am honored to be able to help such a great group of people become better traders. I truly hope just weeks or months down the road you and others can say what is produced here helped your trading, not in a cliché way but in actual profit made each week/month/year. Thanks again for the intro.

[krugman25]

Hi Krugman,

some people -like me for example- still prefer seeing a clean chart as opposed of having more and more indicators thrown in the chart for many different reasons. It will be a good idea if we also have a subthread inside your Web forum. Maybe a specific thread like ‘Raw-Naked Price Action only. For clean chart lovers. No indicators.’ or something like that.

Now, before anybody here starts gathering in front of my door [B]with torches and pitchforks(!)[/B] for my blasphemous suggestion, also remember that Krugman intends his community to grow as [B]a one stop shop for everything you will need to go from day 1 to successful Forex trader[/B]. Let’s face it, lots of us here came from Johnathon’s thread, and his method basically encompasses another school of thought different than the one Krugman embraces here. Remember my argument about [B]PA Purist vs PA Minimalist[/B]? It will be nice if your website gives room for both school of thought to discuss the same trade plan from their typical paradigm as both plan actually work well in the long run. Thus, a specific sub-thread for ‘Raw-Naked Price Action only. For clean chart lovers. No indicators.’

I hope you seriously consider my suggestion, Krugman.

Besides wm247 suggestions, I think it would be nice to see a threat per pair (i.e. one for EURUSD another for AUDUSD etc).

I dont know how you want to work out your forum mate, but what about if:

-as I said, a threat per pair where members can discuss potential PA signals (compulsory to upload a graphic with analysis)
-somehow regulate the useless chit chat (non PA related discussion)
-a different threat where maybe you can upload useful indicators such as the OCA for MT4 users, I saw another with a SWISS army name or something
-Maybe something call general discussion would be appropriate for threats related to related topics

Anyway just thoughts, cheers mate

I agree with you on that one. A PA-forum with a thread per pair would be fantastic. We are all sitting and doing our own analysis for a pair somewhere in the corners of the world and sometimes when we need a second opinion on our analysis of a specific pair it would be great to be able to skip scrolling through 5-10 pages to see if someone has another idea about that pair.

Great suggestions Venepips! Let’s hope Aaron thinks the same…

Krugman, website looks good so far. However, I can’t seem to find the register button for the forum. That aside, something to consider, proper handling of attachments, where it opens in a screen wide window popup, similar to what FF offers. The one offered by BP leaves a bit more to be desired.

You probably can guess my stance on the whole issue by now.

All of this has been noted. I appreciate everyone’s input, as it is you the trader that will be using it, so it’s your opinions that matter the most. I can’t guarantee that every idea will be implemented, but I seriously consider every comment and will be implementing some. It’s a pretty cool position you are all in, as you will help form and evolve it’s design now, that will be what thousands of people use years down the road. Thank you for your input, and please send to me any more ideas that you may have.

Going forward though I would just ask comments or questions about the website be sent via babypips PM, Skype or e-mail, I want to make sure the thread doesn’t become an appendage of my website, and also babypips frowns upon it.

[krugman25]

@springger

Diablo, glad to see that there are other aviation stakeholders in here.

Formalities aside, Gbpcad seems a bit tricky trade. My analysis is a bit different, but I usually start from the HTF’s and drill down to the LTF’s to spot potential hurdles.

Weekly shows that price have just left an area of sideways movement, and just attempting to test the upper limit. Also interesting to note is a gap, of to the left.

Daily shows a 2 bar reversal pattern, with respect to the previous range. Given that Fridays are notorious for reversing some of the weeks’ price movements; I’m starting to view the candle with skepticism.

H4, We see price has been in a smaller sideways range since roughly the 3rd of October. Pardon the Fib retracement, as I trade what I see, and those are the swings I see on my H4 charts. Interesting how the SR confluences with the SR flip, but keep in mind it was moved in this time frame to better suit the O/C.

Since I trade of the H4 primarily, I would prefer see a retrace to the lower limits of the H4 range. Like I tell everyone, trade what you see, not what you expect.

Good analysis, I won’t comment on every chart but I did want to note on your GBPCAD, price was in a really solid range box and from what I can see in your chart is comfortable sitting right on top of that range box. From what I can see the bias would definitely be long as you have a solid foundation under your feet for price and plenty of room to fly higher.

Are any of these setups ones you are seriously considering to take? If so what would you rate the setup quality 1-5?

[krugman25]

I apologize if I missed any questions or requests for chart analysis. I want to make sure I get any forum issues fixed today on my website as next week could be very busy for me at my regular job. I appreciate everyone’s support here and I will be doing a very tricky balance for a while until I get some of the design part of my website completely finished. There is such a great group of people here, and I thoroughly enjoy the community we have. If I don’t respond to a post, it’s not because I don’t like you, I most likely just missed it.

Also if anyone here has Facebook/twitter please friend up or like. I know people love those up to the minute alerts if a trade is unfolding, and I do plan on using twitter and Facebook to make users aware of unfolding chart setups if price is reaching a key area on a pair. It won’t be a signal service, but I want to make sure my community members don’t miss out on something. This thread and my website will be more directed to learning PA and chart analysis.

[EternalNewB]

@krugman25

I apologize if I missed any questions or requests for chart analysis. I want to make sure I get any forum issues fixed today on my website as next week could be very busy for me at my regular job. I appreciate everyone’s support here and I will be doing a very tricky balance for a while until I get some of the design part of my website completely finished. There is such a great group of people here, and I thoroughly enjoy the community we have. If I don’t respond to a post, it’s not because I don’t like you, I most likely just missed it.

Also if anyone here has Facebook/twitter please friend up or like. I know people love those up to the minute alerts if a trade is unfolding, and I do plan on using twitter and Facebook to make users aware of unfolding chart setups if price is reaching a key area on a pair. It won’t be a signal service, but I want to make sure my community members don’t miss out on something. This thread and my website will be more directed to learning PA and chart analysis.

Looks like you haven’t been getting a lot of sleep lately Good luck with your new venture and if we can help just shoot away captain

[Diablo1505]

Welcome, Sascha! Ah, Sweden. I’ve been there as a Physicist myself to visit Stockholm and Uppsala. Once went to Stockholm City Hall for my Nobel Prize ceremony… or at least, I pretend I won one and I gave my personal Nobel speech as a laureate myself.

Thanks! Nice, let me know if and when you get here again and i’ll show you some nice places in town. Last week we where doing some filming on the airport for a new training video i am producing. And the camera guy Peter is the one doing all the filming on the Nobel Prize ceremonies so he had a few interesting stories to tell.

Actually, Krugman has the goal of founding an investing company very soon. And I also want to found my own investing firm in my country Indonesia in the future. That makes you the third one in community.
Don’t worry, maybe we can do professional collaboration in the future. Not just a random chat between strangers in an internet forum, but a real professional business collaboration. Personally, I want to found my investment firm once I am satisfied with the track record of my investing and trading in the long run. I’ve made a good enough return from my investing and trading, but [B]‘good enough’ is NOT enough[/B]. It’s like restaurant business. Unless you really are a good chef and you really are satisfied with your cooking skills, you should never cook for someone else and charge money for that.

Yeah, i guess 8 out of 10 people here on babypips and all the other forex forums have the same ambition like us. Would be really great to get a collaboration working. Not entirely sure if it is possible to manage between three different countries but i really like the idea. And like you i also have a few dollars to invest into this as soon as i am satisfied with my results and my track record. We definitely need to keep in touch about that. Even without collaboration we could create a small community to share thoughts and ideas for future businesses.

zzzZZZzzzZZZzzz… zzzZZZzzzZZZzzz… zzzZZZzzzZZZzzz…

Better than counting sheep, right? Sleep tight!

[Diablo1505]

Thank you for the honest and candid introduction of yourself. We are all glad to have you here and you have already been a great contributor to the thread here and I want to personally thank you for that. People like you have helped make this thing a success and your presence here will keep it a success.

I am always amazed reading peoples introductions here, where they live, where they work and their passions and hobbies. I am honored to be able to help such a great group of people become better traders. I truly hope just weeks or months down the road you and others can say what is produced here helped your trading, not in a cliché way but in actual profit made each week/month/year. Thanks again for the intro.

You’re welcome. I also find it very interesting to see peoples introductions which are way to few on the other threads. It just shows the great variation of people in here. From scientists, pilots, business owners to 18 year old students. A fantastic mix of people and ideas!

I’m glad if i can contribute to this thread and i will do it more frequently from next year. This year i will be far to busy but i will drop by from time to time.

This thread is already helping me and others in our learning and has become a huge success. You are a good teacher and your articles and videos are clear and easy to understand. Keep up the great work Aaron and let’s toghether make this thread one of the best on babypips for people to learn to be successful in this business!

[Diablo1505]

Diablo, glad to see that there are other aviation stakeholders in here.

Formalities aside, Gbpcad seems a bit tricky trade. My analysis is a bit different, but I usually start from the HTF’s and drill down to the LTF’s to spot potential hurdles.

Weekly shows that price have just left an area of sideways movement, and just attempting to test the upper limit. Also interesting to note is a gap, of to the left.

Daily shows a 2 bar reversal pattern, with respect to the previous range. Given that Fridays are notorious for reversing some of the weeks’ price movements; I’m starting to view the candle with skepticism.

H4, We see price has been in a smaller sideways range since roughly the 3rd of October. Pardon the Fib retracement, as I trade what I see, and those are the swings I see on my H4 charts. Interesting how the SR confluences with the SR flip, but keep in mind it was moved in this time frame to better suit the O/C.

Since I trade of the H4 primarily, I would prefer see a retrace to the lower limits of the H4 range. Like I tell everyone, trade what you see, not what you expect.

Hey Springger,

Nice, may i ask what your profession is in the aviation business?

Good analysis on the GBPCAD, i like it!

Personally i never actually dropped down to the 4 hour when i looked at that pair. If i will take this trade i will base it on the daily chart. Earlier I’ve gone down in time-frame to just take a look and then further down until i got myself totally confused. I had a buy-signal on the daily, a range on the 4 hour, a sell signal on the hourly and another buy signal on the 15 min.

The thing is the better you get at forex the harder it gets since you with all the tools in your toolbox can justify a buy or sell pretty much anywhere in the chart.

Personally, the only time i choose to go lower than the time frame where i found my signal is to find a good entry point for that particular trade.

But as i said, great analysis. Let’s see what that pair does tomorrow.

[micheal_taylor]

who work with this system , and who know about kiko system , its like this system , its right ?

[krugman25]

who work with this system , and who know about kiko system , its like this system , its right ?

Hey micheal, from your post I would have to say you didn’t read through the first or second post in this thread. Everything you need to know about what we are talking about are in those two posts. Please read through and if you feel this type of trading is something you want to learn then introduce yourself and we can help you start your journey.

Best Regards,
Aaron K.

[krugman25]

Hey everyone, it’s a good thing I know so many programming languages because I had to get in and start digging through the php code to fix some stuff. The videos page looks much better now. Some may have noticed the articles pages were kind of messed up looking, which I fixed. I enabled the registration button, and I also created a 3rd party application that should allow users to use their facebook, google+, yahoo etc etc accounts to log into the forums. And for those with facebook I believe it will even use your FB profile as your forum picture. I haven’t tested any of this out yet, so if anyone gets a chance and it looks messed up, please send me a message.

It’s been a long couple weeks and I am going to spend the rest of the night hanging out with my 2 boys and watching The Avengers =) I may swing by 1 more time before the night is over. I’m looking forward to the upcoming trading week!

[DUKEFX]

Aaron, good luck to you. Actually the only reason I signed up recently for babypips on October 8th is because you just started this thread. It only had 2 pages at that time but I was hooked. To be honest with you I signed up for babypips about 18 months ago when I first began looking into Forex as a way of making some extra money today, and someday hopefully managing some of my own investments. 18 months ago I went through the course materials by grade on BP then came across price action and decided that was for me. I did look at some of the other forums on here but soon was disinterested with all the crap so I left and forgot my user name…lol. The only other forum I liked was Johnathon’s because it was very clean with a specific set of rules that match the way I trade Price Action. PA fits me like a glove. I have been trading live for 12 months now. Lost money in the beginning, but now starting to be a consistent winner by not over trading and trading with the dominate daily trend using PA daily candles, S/R levels and a couple of EMAs.

The reason why I knew you started this thread is because Google sends me anything new that is discussed about PA trading methods on the web.

If you ask any bank trader, besides the volume they trade and their ability to make a market, the other reason they feel they can be successful is because there are 50 or 100 other traders on the trading floor trading with them, and they see and hear things that we do not. One way for retail home traders to have a leg up is to belong to forums like this where we can learn from each other until we reach that point where we decide it may be time to leave, and hopefully that never happens even after becoming consistently successful. I am in a completely different business than this, but the only way for me to be successful is to make the people that work for me very successful. I see the same for you here.

Sorry if I bored some of you. All the best this week in your trading business!

All I can say is wow and thank you! Comments like this really make my day. There is not much I can add to this except to say thank you and as long as there are people interested in what I am teaching, I will keep on producing it. I look forward talking more in the days to come!

[jpw0100]

Hey. Im John. A little bit about me…

Have known about the forex for a few years now, but just decided about a week ago that i wanted to seriously learn how to be profitable trading. Trading is very interesting and fun to me. I have a friend who runs a small hedge fund trading forex, and he has resparked my interest. I was glad i found this thread last week, and have read through most of it. Am glad to see that i will be getting a full course of info without having to pay. Watching some youtube videos of the gurus who say you have to pay for me to discuss a certain aspect of a trade kinda sucked. I know everyone here agrees.

Im 27 y.o. And graduated from Baylor University in Waco, Tx ( currently ranked 8 in the BCS standings - had to throw that in.) im currently in my final yr of medical school in Dallas, Tx. With that said, i dont have much money to invest in forex for the next couple years until i finish my training and am making a good salary. But id like to be consistently profitable when that time comes. I am going to start with a demo for a few weeks, and then put in a small amount of money(i def agree with others on the thread that the real thing keeps interest high).

Thanks aaron for starting this. I look forward to learning a lot.

I have one question. I would like to use my ipad to do my trading. Anyone know of any good apps?

[jpw0100]

And i know this has been mentioned somewhere in the thread but i cant find it. But what rrading platform do yall recommend? Thanks

[wm247]

And i know this has been mentioned somewhere in the thread but i cant find it. But what rrading platform do yall recommend? Thanks

Hi John,

welcome to Krugman’s thread! Most traders here simply use MT4, but any trading platform you choose should be alright as long as for the sake of discussion in this thread, you show us New York close chart. Many traders here came from Johnathon’s thread, and we simply continue using our brokers with standard New York close chart. You can read the list here:

Broker and Chart Setup

Cheers!

[FTC]

Hey John,

Most of the brokers will provide app to trade but you can always download MT4 trader and can use it. On the other hand if you would like to see charts etc you can also use tradingview.com.

Cheers
HA

@jpw0100

Hey. Im John. A little bit about me…

Have known about the forex for a few years now, but just decided about a week ago that i wanted to seriously learn how to be profitable trading. Trading is very interesting and fun to me. I have a friend who runs a small hedge fund trading forex, and he has resparked my interest. I was glad i found this thread last week, and have read through most of it. Am glad to see that i will be getting a full course of info without having to pay. Watching some youtube videos of the gurus who say you have to pay for me to discuss a certain aspect of a trade kinda sucked. I know everyone here agrees.

Im 27 y.o. And graduated from Baylor University in Waco, Tx ( currently ranked 8 in the BCS standings - had to throw that in.) im currently in my final yr of medical school in Dallas, Tx. With that said, i dont have much money to invest in forex for the next couple years until i finish my training and am making a good salary. But id like to be consistently profitable when that time comes. I am going to start with a demo for a few weeks, and then put in a small amount of money(i def agree with others on the thread that the real thing keeps interest high).

Thanks aaron for starting this. I look forward to learning a lot.

I have one question. I would like to use my ipad to do my trading. Anyone know of any good apps?

[Venepips]

Tomorrow is the NFP, I know that as PA trader I shouldn’t care less about news but in my opinion, this one is the special one. So I going to play safe with those signals triggered that might be impacted directly.

Text book suggest that IB should be traded @ MB breakout… but as I said before, tomorrow is the NFP day…and sometime this news create some distortion in the market. @ the end of the day however, it should follow the PA signal. Although, nothing is for sure in this business