Oww I forgot, Happy 100th!!!
Good trading to you all.
Cheers
Can yâall please critique me on my entire thought process on this trade.
I make my S/R lines on the daily chart. The daily chart approached an area of support, so I started looking at the 8 hr and 4hr charts. I entered the trade when I saw a 4hr pin bar form (the candle was not completed, so on the chart I am posting the candle is not that convincing; but there is a 2hr pin bar).
So I want to know a couple things
- Do yall think this was a good trade? It was with the trend at an area I deemed S/R
- If making S/R lines on the daily, how do yall feel about taking signals that are down on the 2hr/4hr/8hr charts?
Any comments are appreciated. The first chart posted is daily, then 8hr, then 4hr
Can you also comment on my TP/SL. My SL is at the bottom of the 4hr pin bar. It is a SL of 20 pips and TP of 40 pips
You traded against a very strong bearish move on 10/23/13 (daily charts). Also, keep in mind that the smaller time frame you go, the less reliable the signal. Thatâs why I donât trade anything lower than the 4 hour. In my eyes you were not patient enough, a frequent mistake for most traders. You should have waited for confirmation on a higher time frame rather than jumping the gun with the 2 hour signal.
[QUOTE=âXtromist;555766â] You traded against a very strong bearish move on 10/23/13 (daily charts). Also, keep in mind that the smaller time frame you go, the less reliable the signal. Thatâs why I donât trade anything lower than the 4 hour. In my eyes you were not patient enough, a frequent mistake for most traders. You should have waited for confirmation on a higher time frame rather than jumping the gun with the 2 hour signal.[/QUOTE]
Thank you xtromist
Ive been stopped out, so it turns out to be a bad trade.
So do you consider the trend to be a downtrend or an uptrend. I was thinking uptrend
I can see where you perceived it to be an uptrend and indeed it was an uptrend, but if you take a look months before on a daily or weekly chart, you can see that the .85 -.845 is a very significant level that has been rejected many times before. You could see that the day after it closed above .85, it was immediately rejected, and very strongly too. As a trader, it is a good habit to be aware of what is happening on the larger time frames, as they are more reliable.
Added: The pair could possibly range at the 8300 level before continuing back upward but if it falls below the 8200 level I would begin looking for shorts.
[QUOTE=âXtromist;555777â] I can see where you perceived it to be an uptrend and indeed it was an uptrend, but if you take a look months before on a daily or weekly chart, you can see that the .85 -.845 is a very significant level that has been rejected many times before. You could see that the day after it closed above .85, it was immediately rejected, and very strongly too. As a trader, it is a good habit to be aware of what is happening on the larger time frames, as they are more reliable. Added: The pair could possibly range at the 8300 level before continuing back upward but if it falls below the 8200 level I would begin looking for shorts.[/QUOTE]
Thanks for the response
Indeed. Happy 100th!!! Congratulations, Krugman!!!
Itâs almost hard to believe that we have just passed the VBRN 100 pages and 1000 posts. 
[QUOTE=âwm247;555788â]Indeed. Happy 100th!!! Congratulations, Krugman!!! Itâs almost hard to believe that we have just passed the VBRN 100 pages and 1000 posts. [/QUOTE]
Ahh so that was the 100, haha. I have my setting show more posts per page so I see around 50. Congrats to all of us for passing this big milestone! This thread has done amazing in 2 1/2 short weeks. Itâs because the people here are so great. I look forward to the weeks and months to come! I am planning an article for this weekend. Stay tuned
Good commentary and thanks for the screenshot. I use fxcm mobile, and you can add lines to your charts, they are in the button on the upper left hand side with the 3 white dots. I am actually not sure if I am looking at the right candle because the only bullish pinbars I see are from about 6 candles back. If I donât have the right candle, just take my analysis for the educational value. So first I want to say that trade had a lot of things not to like. The first thing that stands out the most is the size of the candle. Yes it is equal size to the previous candle, but around 4 times smaller than the candle before it. The reason why candle size is important is that it tips you off that the candle is truly a false break and reversal, or the market is just taking profit. Many times after big moves, traders want to cash in on their big winners, and that will create pinbar or engulfing bar signals. Many traders compare the candle just to the previous bar, but there is much more to the price action story than just 1 or 2 candles.
The next thing kind of goes with the first and that is you bought in right after a huge sell off. When markets are making huge impulsive moves like that you generally want to wait for it to shake out. You donât know if the sell off will continue or price will snap back. If you are going to take a trade after a big movement, you want it to be a higher timeframe, like the daily.
I looked at volume and it was pretty messy also. There wasnât the usual pullback/reversal type volume signals I see on good setups, the volume remained fairly elevated through the whole sell off. This shows strength among the bears, and I would want to see volume die down on falling prices before jumping into a buy order.
We can see that price did move up after that candle but the overall sentiment of the market is still bearish and pushed prices right back down, so any bullish movements have been short lived. Lower time frame trades are very risky, then if you throw in the aspect of trading on a retracement it increases the risk. Trades taken below daily need to be extra high quality to offset all of the risk. While I think there can be a lot of money made in the lower time frames, I have been seeing a flood of really poor quality low TF trades posted here. Many of these wouldnât even pass and good daily trades, and certainly have very low chance of success on the lower TFs. If a daily chart is like building a house out of legos, the lower TFs are like building a house out of cards. They are much more fragile trades, and things have to be just right or it will collapse on you. You can get away with sloppy trades on the daily, but the lower in time you go the more important it is that you understand all of the market dynamics.
Keep learning, analyzing and trading because this is all a part of the journey from beginner to expert trader. I donât want anyone to be dismayed by my analysis, I just want to see traders make more money. My account is up almost 300% since July, and this is with making some really ridiculous mistakes. I know that number could be more like 400-500% if I could have avoiding just a few of my big mistakes. I think the problem for many traders are not that they canât find the good trades, itâs that they canât filter out the bad ones. If you focus on avoiding lower quality trades, that alone can boost your profits.
I knew with all of the trolls popping up I must have been getting very close to a key resistance level with the 100 VBRN, haha.
[QUOTE=âkrugman25;555827â] <img src=â301 Moved Permanentlyâ/> Good commentary and thanks for the screenshot. I use fxcm mobile, and you can add lines to your charts, they are in the button on the upper left hand side with the 3 white dots. I am actually not sure if I am looking at the right candle because the only bullish pinbars I see are from about 6 candles back. If I donât have the right candle, just take my analysis for the educational value. So first I want to say that trade had a lot of things not to like. The first thing that stands out the most is the size of the candle. Yes it is equal size to the previous candle, but around 4 times smaller than the candle before it. The reason why candle size is important is that it tips you off that the candle is truly a false break and reversal, or the market is just taking profit. Many times after big moves, traders want to cash in on their big winners, and that will create pinbar or engulfing bar signals. Many traders compare the candle just to the previous bar, but there is much more to the price action story than just 1 or 2 candles. The next thing kind of goes with the first and that is you bought in right after a huge sell off. When markets are making huge impulsive moves like that you generally want to wait for it to shake out. You donât know if the sell off will continue or price will snap back. If you are going to take a trade after a big movement, you want it to be a higher timeframe, like the daily. I looked at volume and it was pretty messy also. There wasnât the usual pullback/reversal type volume signals I see on good setups, the volume remained fairly elevated through the whole sell off. This shows strength among the bears, and I would want to see volume die down on falling prices before jumping into a buy order. We can see that price did move up after that candle but the overall sentiment of the market is still bearish and pushed prices right back down, so any bullish movements have been short lived. Lower time frame trades are very risky, then if you throw in the aspect of trading on a retracement it increases the risk. Trades taken below daily need to be extra high quality to offset all of the risk. While I think there can be a lot of money made in the lower time frames, I have been seeing a flood of really poor quality low TF trades posted here. Many of these wouldnât even pass and good daily trades, and certainly have very low chance of success on the lower TFs. If a daily chart is like building a house out of legos, the lower TFs are like building a house out of cards. They are much more fragile trades, and things have to be just right or it will collapse on you. You can get away with sloppy trades on the daily, but the lower in time you go the more important it is that you understand all of the market dynamics. Keep learning, analyzing and trading because this is all a part of the journey from beginner to expert trader. I donât want anyone to be dismayed by my analysis, I just want to see traders make more money. My account is up almost 300% since July, and this is with making some really ridiculous mistakes. I know that number could be more like 400-500% if I could have avoiding just a few of my big mistakes. I think the problem for many traders are not that they canât find the good trades, itâs that they canât filter out the bad ones. If you focus on avoiding lower quality trades, that alone can boost your profits.[/QUOTE]
Krugman, thank you for that info. I learned quite a bit from that. The pin bar i was actually playing was the 4th bar from the right in your picture. I made another mistake on this trade in that i got in before the candle closed. It was no longer a pinbar when it closed. I essentially took the trade on a 2hr pinbar, which with all the analysis u gave was also a bad idea. Lucky for me im on a demo account until i get a decent understanding
Well, you know what the Good Book said about this:
And forgive us our trespasses,
as we forgive them that trespass against us.
And lead us not into temptation;
but deliver us from evil.
The Big Guy up there surely pushes us to the limit this last few days, donât you think, Krugman? HahaâŚ
I am glad the analysis helped. Thatâs why I didnât see the pin bar. You will want to add that one to your list, that trades are always taken after candle close, even if it is 1 minute early itâs a no go. I have seen beautiful pin bars collapse just a minute or two before close, and turn into total garbage. Believe it or not the big boyâs trade this same way, and they are trading the candles just like use, that is why you can sometimes see volatility pick up right before a candle close. Itâs all a part of learning, and itâs all of the trade you take, winners and losers, that will help you âbecome one with the marketâ. I know that sounds corny but when you take enough trades you really start to get a deep understanding of each trade, and sometimes your gut is telling you not to take a trade. That gut feeling is your mind having stored hundreds of historical trades, and itâs processing that âtrading wisdomâ up against what your chart has. Youâll get there, just keep hanging around here!
Haha, or the trolls were getting bothered by all of the commotion in these threads. If I could take all of the time Iâve wasted Sherrifing my threads, I could have written some really great articles. I think thatâs what bothers me the most about it, is that it steals away my time from the most important people, those who are here trying to become better traders. And it ends up being spent on some trouble makers who will be gone and never come back again, only to go waste someone elseâs time. and I digressâŚ
Nice analogy, Iâll keep that in mind. :35:
I canât help it, cool analogies just ooze out of me, lol
Two trades I made. Please let me know what yall think
EUR/GBP â Sell
⢠Pros
o Downtrending
o Great looking pin bar occurs at S/R line
⢠Cons
o S/R line is mediocre; it has been broken both ways in the past
o Body of pin bar goes past S/R by 3 pips (might be bad)
USD/CAD - sell
⢠Pros
o At an area of moderate resistance
o Good pin bar on 8hr chart
o Its kind of a downtrend
⢠Cons
o Downtrending is not super convincing
o No pin bar on daily
o Resistance line has been broken in past
Would love feedback on both the thought process and the play itself
Hi all,
Just want to discuss a trade that I took the other day and which unfortunately failed.
Itâs on the AUDJPY. From the daily, price had gone down to a key support level and I was looking to go long as the trend was up since end of august eventhough not really making higher highs and higher lows steadily.
You can notice that all EMA lines were below that support level so it was a good sign in terms of support likely to hold firm.
I moved down to lower timeframe and found a convincing BUEB on the 1hr which I took as a sign of reversal.
I thought the BUEB is tradable because it has a lower wick showing support level rejection and it closed with almost no upper wick, meaning bullish power was strong. There was an increase in volume which I also took as a good sign.
I placed an order on the break of the BUEB at 94.14 with a TP at 95.21 and SL at 93.39. As you can see on the chart, it failed after having made a try to move higher.
The original plan was to watch for the 94.4 level as it could act as a short term resistance and move to BE if failure to break through it. However, price only reached 94.28 and moved back down rather quickly which didnât give enough time to act on it.
My analyse afterward is as follow:
BUEB was looking good but it was right after a strong selloff with very long bearish candles compared to all the candles around it. Taking a trade from the 1hr is a bit too risky in such a situation as it is less reliable and also too early after the selloff. Also, it could have protrude a bit more and showed a much clearer rejection of the support level. I had a small chance to take profit but I didnât want to enter this game of closing winning position on the first little rejection. It looks obvious now with all the price action afterwards but during the trade, it sounded more like cutting on profit because of lack of patience or irrational fear.
I didnât get affected by the loss as I used proper lot size and was ready for any outcome as you should be no matter how much edge you have.
I welcome any additional comment on why this could have been a no go for you guys.
Have a great day (or night)
Yves
If I may add to this setup, here is how I looked at it:
[ul]
[li]The up trend line was broken by the big bearish candle.
[/li][li]A semi-decent shooting star pattern off of the 38.2% fib, indicating a strong trend down.
[/li][li]S/R area, previous trend line and 127% fib extension all lining up for an awesome TP area!
[/li][/ul]
I know that trend lines have not been used that much in the thread so far but their power and influence was unmistakable in this trade.
Cheers!
Just my opinion , since Daily formed a BEEB , I would like to wait for the price to pull back at the coming support area and go for long if there is a signal.