[QUOTE=“EternalNewB;556267”]USD CAD Weekly A bullish weekly pin bar a few weeks ago showing a clear rejection of below price and now a BUEB engulfing the previous 4 weeks Looks like this pair is ready to go further up ? Pros Closed above resistance Price action timeframe gives high probability No real nose to the left Cons I don’t like weekly TF with the huge SL and a lot of time to wait Rating I’d say 3/5 <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
But that engulfing bar isn’t one you would take. You are looking for price rejections at swing low/high, that bar is just a reaction to the Pinbar that happened a few weeks earlier, there maybe chances to get long next week but they won’t be on this timeframe.
I spotted this one as well and almost came to the same conclusion as you with one little difference. I still have that pinbar in mind which then took weeks to reach target and I am thinking it is not worth it. But maybe that is the right candidate to implement Aaron’s entry on signal retracement as it would allow a better RRR and also if price goes down first, it would get triggered faster.
A quick question, when calculating your winning ratio where does a BE falls? It can’t be counted as a winner but shouldn’t be counted as a looser either.
That in itself is good to know. I saw one trade that I was thinking about on GJ but didn’t like the other side’s argument for going the other way and decided to sit on the sidelines which I would have cosed on Friday for BE. I had feared that I was falling into my peristent analysis paralysis syndrom.
The trade is already moved to BE and 50% profit taken off at the first target (light green line), but I would leave it even if it didn’t reach the first target.
Richard[/QUOTE]
Thanks again Richard, That makes sense and also looks like a great trade. I will be happy to keep daily and higher TF trades over the weekend but it sounds as though anything below is much riskier. I think I’m possibly a little confused about this gap business over the weekend. Am I correct in assuming that if the market gaps it can gap past your stop loss costing more than you’d intended to risk?
Yesterday I put a trade on at the open of the U.S markets using the one hour TF. By the end of play I was down 20 pips or so despite my stop loss still intact. I reluctantly closed it ten mins before the end of the day to avoid anything unexpected over the weekend.
It’s the same here for me, BA. My personal trade plan is that I have no problem to hold trades over the weekend if AND only if it’s D1 setup and above tf.
For lower tf than D1, the rule is different. I will not open any new intraday trade on the last half of Friday (my weekend begins when US opens on Friday). Or, if I already have any open intraday trade on Friday, I’ll move it to BE or ‘consider’ shorten the SL, and call it a day.[/QUOTE]
Thanks WM247
It’s really helpful to get your guys feedback on this, Im very much a newbie to all this still and so it helps to understand the methods of more experienced traders.
I can see your point here. To a certain extend, I am even considering only trading from tuesday to thursday. Even if I improved a lot in the last 3 months, I still have this bad habit of wanting things to happen quickly and it normally only happens during these 3 days if it happens at all. I think it could save me a lot of frustration and refrain me from taking impuslive decisions while in a trade when price just doesn’t seem to move in any directions.
Yves[/QUOTE]
Hi Yves
That’s funny because I was thinking the same, Mondays often seem like a bit of a none day, things seem to warm up much more on Tuesday and Weds. I will definitely continue to trade Mondays but intend to be more cautious on this day. I have noticed that I have been guilty of snatching excitedly at trades on Mondays after those two days off at the weekend. I’m always itching to get back to my charts and can be a bit to keen!
Thanks to everyone who recommended Hotforex, I am blown away with it. They have everything I was looking for and more! I can see that this will meet all my needs and now I can trade Tesco’s too, bonus!
Tesco?? BA, you’re getting more and more British at alarming rate. Hoping you will return to the good ol’ Uncle Sam soon, no matter how much Benedict enjoys John Bull’s hospitality.
what about the aud/usd daily engulfing bar? I’ve placed about 10 pips below the bar and it triggered. currently in a very small profit. where do u see this trade going since the order has triggered for a valid price signal.
I considered the pair to be in a range (black lines) and the price was on top of it so the area was good eventhough it was a CT trade on the 4hr.
I think the main reason why it didn’t work out is that this pinbar was probably the result of traders taking profit before the weekend. Also, I entered it for the wrong reason, I was desperate to end the week at least at break even and I entered this on a retracement of the pinbar as it was already late friday thinking this is my chance to get another win.
This trade ended up being a modest win. I decided to close it before the weekend as it was stalling and the Aussie is quite famous for opening with Gaps on sunday evening as chinese news often come out during the Weekend.
From the daily, I considered the pair to be in an uptrend from beginning of august to mid september followed by a retracement that ended very recently as it reached a key level.
Pro’s: nice big BUEB
at a relevant level
Con’s: not really with the trend
RRR is pretty poor
Rating: can’t give it more than 2 really
What I think afterwards is that the analyse was wrong even if it ended up being a win.
Here is the daily chart again with the right drawing. Basically, it would have been a buy, if price had bounced from the 1.4485 level (black lines) but as it broke it, the right strategy was to wait for price to reach that 1.4485 level and form a PA signal to go short (blue line)
The reason I took this trade is that I needed it badly, not the right reason. The only positive thing about it is that I was patient enough to wait for it to reach TP.
Tesco?? BA, you’re getting more and more British at alarming rate. Hoping you will return to the good ol’ Uncle Sam soon, no matter how much Benedict enjoys John Bull’s hospitality. :D[/QUOTE]
I’m hoping I can make some of the money back from Tesco’s that Benedict spends on beef and tomato pot noodles each week. That crazy fool lives on them and no doubt produces lots of buy signals on their charts.
Have you ever traded commodities or indices wm247? I fancy getting in on the action but the charts look a little different compared to FX, lots of gaps all over the place!
Haha… sometimes I wish we had a spinoff show like ‘The BA and Benedict Show’.
I want to, but commodities and indices do not seem to accept microlot trade size (I can be wrong here, anybody feel free to correct me). Either minilot or standard lot as far as I know.
That reminds me one thing. Anybody here knows where to find a good Position Size Calculator for commodities or indices? Any Position Size Calculator I know only generates the calculation for currency pairs, but no commodities or indices.
I’m watching 3 potential setups for next week, please share your thoughts about the setups and the analysis.
Cheers!
P.S.: The EURAUD and AUDCHF are nicely mirrored graphs, which is logical due to the EURCHF correlation, but it shows nicely when putting the graphs below each other This also means that when considering these setups you might split risk between these too.
Haha Benedict would love that, he’ll do anything to get back on TV, he’d even appear on ‘Come Dine With Me’ if they’d let him.
I’d also like to know about a position size calculator for commodities and indices, I don’t really understand pip value etc when it comes to anything from sugar to the FTSE 100 and would be very interested to learn.
I’m hoping I can make some of the money back from Tesco’s that Benedict spends on beef and tomato pot noodles each week. That crazy fool lives on them and no doubt produces lots of buy signals on their charts.
This also means that when considering these setups you might split risk between these too.