Price Action That Matters

[bizzaro]

hey i have already closed my position as it is almost the end of the trading week. profit of 40 pips. i usually take trades off the 4h, 8h n dailys. i wont see the pinbar if not for your post. i dont see whats the big deal if i took it as a price action signal and education at the same time. i took the trade based on my own analysis of the pros n cons. cheers! i hope u made some money too. happy weekend

Hy Bizzaro,

I hope you didn’t enter just because I posted this was not my intention.

I didn’t post it as a signal but rather for peers to challenge it.

Since you entered, what is your entery SL and TP if I may ask ?
Good luck with it

[steve1972]

Hi Aaron, should the 1:3 R/R be 25% win rate to break even?

@krugman25

To get your required % win you take (100/1) / ((R/R)+(1/1)). I attached 2 equations for a 3:1 RR scenario and a 1:4 RR scenario. If you have a know RR, this is the equation to find break even % win rate.

[steve1972]

Hi Aaron, should the 1:3 R/R be 25% win rate to break even?

Sorr y man, just realised your example is 3:1 not 1:3. My mistake.

[krugman25]

It looks like I am going to end the week right at 0%. I had a little bit of price pullback in my open positions going into close today. Overall this week I found a few “ok” trades, all of them intra-day. I have been looking for some high quality daily setups, as those provide the safest and surest trades, but I just have not seen any. There were quite a few major support levels that just couldn’t hold and were broken through this week. Just like we saw last week, there was a lot of consolidation on many of the pairs, followed by explosive moves and many were counter trend. We will have to wait until next week to see if this allows us to get back in the trends at better prices, or if it was the beginning of some trend reversals. For what I would consider a sub-par month for high quality setups, I am glad to have ended it up 8.5%. This thread is also ending its first month. I think it has been a great first month and has already accumulated a lot of good price action information. There is much more to come, and I look forward to see how the traders here grow. I plan on diverting some of my spare time into an indicator I am writing, but if time permits I will be dropping a video and maybe an article here over the weekend. Have a great weekend everyone!

[slipp3ryWhippit]

Another tradeless week for me.

[steve1972]

Well I ended the month at break even which believe it or not in 10 months of demo trading is my best yet. This is mainly due to the fact I’ve become a lot more picky with my trades since following this thread 2 weeks ago. Here’s looking forward to next month. Thanks a lot you guys.
Steve.

[EternalNewB]

hey i have already closed my position as it is almost the end of the trading week. profit of 40 pips. i usually take trades off the 4h, 8h n dailys. i wont see the pinbar if not for your post. i dont see whats the big deal if i took it as a price action signal and education at the same time. i took the trade based on my own analysis of the pros n cons. cheers! i hope u made some money too. happy weekend

I didn’t mean it was a big deal, I just wanted to make sure you made your own analysis as mine is known to be flawed I am just accumulating losses and don’t want to inflict them to anyone

[wm247]

I will be curious to hear those brave enough to talk about how their trading week ended. Due to the quietness of this thread, I have a feeling for most it was unprofitable. I won’t throw out a number quite yet because I still have a couple open trades, but I am in profit as of right now for the week. I have had a couple losers this week, but 1 single winner has made up for all of them and put me in profit. One of the trades I currently have open is the EURCHF which I am currently at a 1:5 RR, and shooting for a 1:10 to 1:15.
If your trading is the opposite, it only take 1 loser to put you way in the hole and a couple winners to dig out of it, you have one of a number of problems. The first is over risking. We have already discussed that it becomes exponentially harder to dig out of a loss, as the loss grows. This math simply works against you as a trader. This is why just to break even you have to be winning. The other reason is your RR and win rate model. The famous saying is cut your losers short and let your winners run, but I could bet that 90% of traders do the opposite. This is because when a trade is losing, the trade is kept open out of hope for recovery, and winners are cut short out of fear of losing profits. I feel that only taking 1:1 RR or less puts tremendous pressure on a trader to maintain high win rates. This is the only way that a low RR model can be successful. Setting a minimum RR of 1:2 or greater takes the pressure off of needing to win so frequently, and helps the trader develop the mental and emotional skills to let their winners run. The mental stress of making up for losers and achieving the high win rates puts even more stress on the trader to close winners early. If I am able to achieve a 1:15 RR on my EURCHF trade, this means I can lose the next 15 trades in a row and still break even. I know that the likelihood of losing that much is slim to non, which means I have the freedom on future trades to continue to shoot for high RR without feeling like I have to take profit early, and if I lose it really does not bother me that much. If I am able to keep my win rate high, and continue trading high RR setups, I know my profit will also be much higher than other lower RR price action traders.

I am not writing this to shoot down lower RR trading styles, but I feel that there is plenty of good information and teaching about safer and lower RR trading, but not much about riskier and higher RR trading. Since I have always traded high RR, I want to help fill that information gap. Both styles are different and have their own individual benefits as well as their own unique stresses. For those trades who feel they really are understanding price action and taking those high quality setups, it may be worth considering incorporating lower time frame and higher risk setups. I believe a mix of the two methods can compliment each other for a balanced trading method.

Well, I have no open trade at all this week. So I really have nothing to say here. I do not plan to disclose any number, and I will not do that in the future as it’s none of everyone’s business.

But then again, I do not take any intraday trade or CT trade as I have no plan for that at this point. I do plan to start incorporating it this month, though, after taking care some important business first with the stock market first. Like you’ve stated it here, Krugman. Your Low Win and High RRR strategy can complement my High Win and Low RRR original strategy.

[steve1972]

You know what, I’ve been demoing forex for nearly a year now. I’ve even paid to learn (nial and chris) by the way both are fantastic in there own right). then along comes this dude claiming he gonna teach you everything he knows for free.(Free???) First thing I think is " yeah right, whatever". **** man, this is the only month in 10 that I have broke even.
October 1-14 down as usual then pulled it all back in last 2 weeks which was when I first subscribed.

My point is:

1. Over 100 posts in 1 week (everyone happy)
2. Really bad week this week for everyone who trend trades whatever there straegegy… (Don’t beat yourself up !!!)
3. Don’t leave this thread just cos you had a bad week, Aaron really is one of the good guys.
   Here’s to a big November,
   Steve.

[wm247]

You know what, I’ve been demoing forex for nearly a year now. I’ve even paid to learn (nial and chris) by the way both are fantastic in there own right). then along comes this dude claiming he gonna teach you everything he knows for free.(Free???) First thing I think is " yeah right, whatever". **** man, this is the only month in 10 that I have broke even.
October 1-14 down as usual then pulled it all back in last 2 weeks which was when I first subscribed.

My point is:

1. Over 100 posts in 1 week (everyone happy)
2. Really bad week this week for everyone who trend trades whatever there straegegy… (Don’t beat yourself up !!!)
3. Don’t leave this thread just cos you had a bad week, Aaron really is one of the good guys.
   Here’s to a big November,
   Steve.

Cannot say it better myself, Steve. I stay here because of my faith in Krugman. I have seen terrible mentors at many PA threads, but definitely not here. I still disagree with some of K’s ideas, but you bloody well bet that he is one of the good guys at Forex world.

[steve1972]

Cannot say it better myself, Steve. I stay here because of my faith in Krugman. I have seen terrible mentors at many PA threads, but definitely not here. I still disagree with some of K’s ideas, but you bloody well bet that he is one of the good guys at Forex world.

I dont do forums ,never have , apart from the odd one here here on BP. All I’m saying is don’t jump ship just cos you had a bad week or month, between us and the big ‘A’ we are gonna beat this beast, just have faith and wait for lessons!!!

[FaRS]

You know what, I’ve been demoing forex for nearly a year now. I’ve even paid to learn (nial and chris) by the way both are fantastic in there own right). then along comes this dude claiming he gonna teach you everything he knows for free.(Free???) First thing I think is " yeah right, whatever". **** man, this is the only month in 10 that I have broke even.
October 1-14 down as usual then pulled it all back in last 2 weeks which was when I first subscribed.

My point is:

1. Over 100 posts in 1 week (everyone happy)
   [B]2. Really bad week this week for everyone who trend trades whatever there straegegy… (Don’t beat yourself up !!!)[/B]
2. Don’t leave this thread just cos you had a bad week, Aaron really is one of the good guys.
   Here’s to a big November,
   Steve.

Not really my case.

[EternalNewB]

You know what, I’ve been demoing forex for nearly a year now. I’ve even paid to learn (nial and chris) by the way both are fantastic in there own right). then along comes this dude claiming he gonna teach you everything he knows for free.(Free???) First thing I think is " yeah right, whatever". **** man, this is the only month in 10 that I have broke even.
October 1-14 down as usual then pulled it all back in last 2 weeks which was when I first subscribed.

My point is:

1. Over 100 posts in 1 week (everyone happy)
2. Really bad week this week for everyone who trend trades whatever there straegegy… (Don’t beat yourself up !!!)
3. Don’t leave this thread just cos you had a bad week, Aaron really is one of the good guys.
   Here’s to a big November,
   Steve.

Thank you for the story Steve, I just finished my 12th week and till now only losses (although this month is the lowest loss of them all)

I have not taken any paid course but learned (and still am) quite a lot from J. thread, however I have always been impressed by K’s judgment and posting in K’s thread so you can bet I was all over it as soon as I heard K was willing to share with us what he learned in a more formal way

I can hardly wait to see this thread unfolding as the discussions here are open and I am learning a lot from peers too (advice and mistakes)

I am glad you joined us and hope we both make it soon to the profitable percentage of traders

Cheers

[EternalNewB]

Not really my case.

Glad to hear this as I can tell, from your posts, that you have some experience under your belt and I’m glad to meet yet another trader that proves me that PA can be successful on the long run.

Thank you for sticking with us and sharing your knowledge

[EternalNewB]

What do you guys think of the evening star on GBPUSD weekly ? is this ready to be hammered down even more ?

I have no idea about stars so also if someone can elaborate on them

[bizzaro]

tht was a good analysis and a valid set up. im looking for long trades of the usd and yesterdays news help spike the price up too. wht i did was set profit to breakeven prior to news release to avoid negative outcome in case of bearish news. hehe things r looking good for us pa traders.

I didn’t mean it was a big deal, I just wanted to make sure you made your own analysis as mine is known to be flawed I am just accumulating losses and don’t want to inflict them to anyone

[bizzaro]

i think tht weekly pa is the most reliable. on the daily, gbp/usd has broken the trend line and a potential double top has appeared. however i do not know how to trade the weekly. maybe krugman can shed some light on this

@EternalNewB

What do you guys think of the evening star on GBPUSD weekly ? is this ready to be hammered down even more ?

I have no idea about stars so also if someone can elaborate on them

[krugman25]

You know what, I’ve been demoing forex for nearly a year now. I’ve even paid to learn (nial and chris) by the way both are fantastic in there own right). then along comes this dude claiming he gonna teach you everything he knows for free.(Free???) First thing I think is " yeah right, whatever". **** man, this is the only month in 10 that I have broke even.
October 1-14 down as usual then pulled it all back in last 2 weeks which was when I first subscribed.

My point is:

1. Over 100 posts in 1 week (everyone happy)
2. Really bad week this week for everyone who trend trades whatever there straegegy… (Don’t beat yourself up !!!)
3. Don’t leave this thread just cos you had a bad week, Aaron really is one of the good guys.
   Here’s to a big November,
   Steve.

I really appreciate this post Steve. When I started reading it I didn’t know if it was going to be bad or good, haha. I am glad people here are finding success in what I am teaching. Usually when someone adds a new strategy to their trading habits, it causes them temporary loss until they can learn to how manage it effectively and profitably. I have really been enjoying this and really pleased by the reception of the teachings here and the growth some are already experiencing. There is a tremendous more amount of information that still needs to be covered, but there is enough here now to at least get people on their feet. Thanks for hoping on board and believing in what I am teaching. I hope everyone keeps me informed as they continue to grow, that helps me know I am on the right track.

[krugman25]

Not really my case.

You and some others here are doing impressively well. There are a lot of traders here that look up to you, I greatly appreciate you being here and contributing.

[fahedksa]

Aaron ,
Regarding Fibonacci retracement :
1-If we have a obvious large down trend and within market moving we got a up trend swing ,should we redraw our Fibo.Ret. on the large picture on the down trend or draw fibo on last up swing?
2-When we draw fibo should start from first swing of the new trend or from last swing ?

Thank again for all help and support .