Apparently the link doesn’t work.
The pattern that was caught was a bearish price action pattern. The main reason that most didn’t take it is that most here do not trade price action patterns but rather price action candlesticks. There were a couple downsides to the pattern that I have mentioned such as price reaching the apex and stalling, and also the pattern was against the trend and price momentum. Overall it was a sub-par quality setup. Huge breakouts happen all of the time on sub-par quality setups. You also need to look at how many times sub par setups fail. Often times when low quality setups end up making huge movements, we kick our selves for not taking the setup, but we do not see the 100 times that type of low quality setup failed. In the long term statistics, playing those setups may not provide any long term edge.
What we do know are that high quality setups can give us long term success. We may miss out on big moves, but our goal isn’t catching every move. Our goal is getting in highly probable setups and letting that edge play out over time. You may not catch many of the moves that happen(since many aren’t preceded by high quality price action), what matters is that the setups you do take are overall successful, and give you a good RR and win rate%.
Thanks fars, I fixed the link.
[QUOTE=“krugman25;560192”]
Thanks fars, I fixed the link.[/QUOTE]
Thanks as always for the video Aaron, it was very informative.
BA
Think the USDCHF is showing a really nice setup… one of the most obvious I’ve seen last couple of weeks.
I was watching this one since last week to retest the resistance line and now it is actually showing it on H4 with a nice pinbar.
I rate it 4 stars and have pending orders set. Now just sit back and (hopefully) enjoy the ride 
[QUOTE=“Elunar;560440”]Think the USDCHF is showing a really nice setup… one of the most obvious I’ve seen last couple of weeks.
I was watching this one since last week to retest the resistance line and now it is actually showing it on H4 with a nice pinbar.
I rate it 4 stars and have pending orders set. Now just sit back and (hopefully) enjoy the ride :-)[/QUOTE]
Hey Elunar
I was looking at this too but decided not to take it as it looks to me as though the pin bar formed at a swing low. It may well work out but doesn’t meet my trading plan, hoping for a better pin bar on the daily.
What does everyone else think?
[QUOTE=“Mr B A Barracus;560461”]
Hey Elunar
I was looking at this too but decided not to take it as it looks to me as though the pin bar formed at a swing low. It may well work out but doesn’t meet my trading plan, hoping for a better pin bar on the daily.
What does everyone else think?[/QUOTE]
Actually looking again, maybe it’s not on a swing low…hopefully some peers will be on here soon.
Good day to all
I’ve been trading stocks & forex for some years. Having finally found some winning strategies for stock trading I now turn my focus back to forex. And I found this promising thread by Aaron.
As I came late, am going through the backlog of posts now. I may have some probing topics for reflection & discussion after catching up.
New York, Washington… etc are 180 deg away from where I am. An engineer by training I’m retired, after more than 30 years in corporate world. As I understand, engineers are known for being numerate, methodical & systematic, which shd stand us in good instead Of course, it takes more than that to be successful in forex trading. I’m not a Christian, nor a Muslim, nor a Buddhist, nor… However, I’m open to all religions. Yet I maintain high vigilance against religious teachings as they may not necessarily be the true teachings of the Masters but adulterated by purported followers with hidden agendas.
I wish all happy & profitable trading.
Henry
I don’t want to say if the trade is good or bad because I haven’t had a chance to analyze it, but I am confused about you saying the pin bar is at a swing low. It looks like price originally swung down, then pulled back, and the pin bar would be a price reversal candle at a swing high.
[QUOTE=“Henry9986;560463”]Good day to all
I’ve been trading stocks & forex for some years. Having finally found some winning strategies for stock trading I now turn my focus back to forex. And I found this promising thread by Aaron.
As I came late, am going through the backlog of posts now. I may have some probing topics for reflection & discussion after catching up.
New York, Washington… etc are 180 deg away from where I am. An engineer by training I’m retired, after more than 30 years in corporate world. As I understand, engineers are known for being numerate, methodical & systematic, which shd stand us in good instead Of course, it takes more than that to be successful in forex trading. I’m not a Christian, nor a Muslim, nor a Buddhist, nor… However, I’m open to all religions. Yet I maintain high vigilance against religious teachings as they may not necessarily be the true teachings of the Masters but adulterated by purported followers with hidden agendas.
I wish all happy & profitable trading.
Henry[/QUOTE]
Hi Henry, nice to see you here.
[QUOTE=“Mr B A Barracus;560461”]
Hey Elunar
I was looking at this too but decided not to take it as it looks to me as though the pin bar formed at a swing low. It may well work out but doesn’t meet my trading plan, hoping for a better pin bar on the daily.
What does everyone else think?[/QUOTE]
I don’t like that very bullish movement to the left of it either, looks like a lot of strength maybe.
Welcome Henry, we are glad to have you here! You went down the same road I did, as I got my start in stocks and stock options. I found that it gave me a big head start when I started Forex trading. When you traded stocks were you trading in the NYSE? Also did you have method you traded with? What drew you to price action trading when you decided to come over to Forex? Thanks for the introduction and I look forward to your input here in the future.
~Aaron K.
Hi BA,
Thanks for your feedback. From my point of view it qualifies as a swing high, the swing low was at 0.89100. At least according to my book 
BTW: The pending order just got triggered.
[QUOTE=“Elunar;560475”]Hi BA,
Thanks for your feedback. From my point of view it qualifies as a swing high, the swing low was at 0.89100. At least according to my book BTW: The pending order just got triggered.[/QUOTE]
You may have a point there Elunar, it would have nice space to work into if it works out too. Good luck chief! Hope it nets you some pips.
I took that one this morning.
(sorry so late on the response)
Thank you for posting all of the pro’s and con’s. Good job.
Later on I’ll tell you where I’m in and all the details.
Just found another nice PA signal (pin bar) on the EUR/USD 8 hour chart at a pretty nice level. Actually the pin bar is looking good on ALL hourly time frames.
The pin bar occurs on the crossover of the horizontal S/R and daily trend line. It would have been nice to see a deeper penetration into the trend line though.
Close up of PA:
Pros:
- Nice big PA
- At confluence of horizontal S/R and daily trendline
- With the trend
Cons:
- Trading into a bit of traffic
- Big SL compared to the first target area (could be avoided if we can enter at a retracement)
Rating: 3.5/5
I really like the size of the PA and the area where it occurs. So if we can squeeze out a better R:R by entering on a retrace this is definitely a trade i would take.
What do you guys think?
Hi everyone,
My name is Greg. I have been involved in forex trading for a little under a year. The first few months were absolute chaos, and I almsot blew up my account, but thanks to an extremely lucky, over-leveraged trade, I managed to save my account. Since then I have been trying out different strategies and have found that PA trading, along with a SSD indicator works best for me. Also it is extremely important for me to stay disciplined and patient so that I do not make silly trades like the one i mentioned previously. Having a written out trade plan and using a journal are key for this in my opinion.
Anyways, here is a trade set up on the EUR/USD that i entered last night. Let me know your thoughts.
Pros: trend-line
strong horizontal support
the pair is in an uptrend and just had a nice pullback
SSD is extremely oversold
Cons: Psychological 1.35 level (price broke through while I was sleeping)
Strong rally downwards recently that may continue
Noise to the left
Rating: 3.5 stars out of 5
Hi Greg!
Welcome to the thread. Since you are into PA trading you’ll just love this thread. A bunch of fantastic people with Aaron, a great teacher leading the herd.
I love that we posted almost the same analysis of the EUR/USD, just 15 minutes apart, gave the signal the same rating and almost the same pros and cons. Then we can’t be totally off with our analysis…
Hope to see more from you around here. Keep it up and good luck with your trade!
Hi Aaron,
Let me explain more with chart :
These is EURCHF -4H
We are in uptrend (Trend Line A-B)
In uptrend we drae Fibo. Ret. from Swing Low-to-Swing High
Last redarw was from B-to-C
SO, We redraw Fibo. Ret. on last swing
If above is correct
We have down swing C-to-D .So,Should i redraw now from C-to-D(from swing High to Swing low)
or these will be against the uptrend.
I think you did a great analysis on this pair and TF. You hit on the big ones that I see which is that this isn’t a textbook trend yet, it may be carving out a trend as we speak though. The other one is that the candle closed right above a support line. Retracement entries should only be taken when the candle has close below resistance, and the retracement should be if possible entered below the retracement. With the candle having formed above a weekly support, price may not be able to break through that level, and you end up shorting a trade that is sitting on top of a support which makes it much less likely to succeed. That means you would want to enter at the break of the candle, and would end up with a very large SL. You could use a modified SL and put your SL 20-30 pips about the support line you are waiting to be broken(in the .9870 region). this would give you a much smaller SL, and still give you a buffer between your entry and SL.