Pros:
[ul]
[li]Pin bar, more specifically a textbook A+ shooting star.
[/li][li]Right at previous resistance.
[/li][li]1:5 risk/reward.
[/li][/ul]
Cons:
[ul]
[li]Small pin bar.
[/li][li]Strong bullish candle up before the pin bar.
[/li][/ul]
This will be my first entry on a 50% fib pullback, I really really hope it enters. If not, the maths are still shockingly much in your favor if you only take 50% pullback entries, so what I don’t make on one trade are made up many times over a larger set of trades.
Nice analysis, good looking trade/signal. I’ve not much to add to your analysis. Maybe one more to the con side would be that i is a counter trend trade. And to the pro side that it also is a double top. GL, Let’s hope your entry gets hit!
Hmmmm… I should just mention that the NZD/CAD setup might have been a bit premature due to the candle not being closed yet. I’ll wait and see what happens then.
Well let me just point out that if you were looking for a price action signal only, you are getting a very nice bullish engulfing pattern right now, so as far as PA signals go, it’s legit in my book.
The issue is the place where the engulfing bar took place. For me personally it’s just too choppy to the left. You did mark off some great levels and a trend line which seems solid but personally I want the very “obvious” setups, if you know what I mean?
Thanks for your view on this! Yeah i agree, it’s a bit choppy to the left and we also have a minor resistance on the way up.
The reason i did not see the “bullish engulfing bar” scenario is because a engulfing bar for me engulfs the whole previous candlestick including the wick which is not happening here. But price clearly gets rejected at the moment. We’ll see what happens. I’ll pass on this trade.
Haha, found this one and i just need to share it with you guys. To funny!
Is anyone still long on the nzdusd daily? We got a nice boost last night but I don’t like the look of that pin bar on the daily that has formed at the first resistance line, is it time to get out early?
I’m not liking the market uncertainty at all, I also took the eurusd pin to go long earlier in the week and the cadchf engulfing bar to go short on the 4hr all of which are looking a bit dicey at present.
[QUOTE=“Mr B A Barracus;561645”]Is anyone still long on the nzdusd daily? We got a nice boost last night but I don’t like the look of that pin bar on the daily that has formed at the first resistance line, is it time to get out early?
I’m not liking the market uncertainty at all, I also took the eurusd pin to go long earlier in the week and the cadchf engulfing bar to go short on the 4he all of which are looking a bit dicey at present.
BA[/QUOTE]
I should add that the NZDUSD pin bar that formed on the daily today is not an official pin bar with in my rules but when it’s against you, a price rejection is a price rejection.
Well that’s when your pre trading plan will aid you.
However the kiwi has not closed above resistance and is actually rejecting it quite strong on the daily,while it might still go up a smart trader would close at least half the position and go BE.
Well that’s when your pre trading plan will aid you.
However the kiwi has not closed above resistance and is actually rejecting it quite strong on the daily,while it might still go up a smart trader would close at least half the position and go BE.
Hope that helps.
Cheers[/QUOTE]
Thanks Kasravi
My pre-trade plan was to try and get to the second TP and trail my stop onwards. I moved my stop loss to break even 60 plus pips in. Part of my plan was to be aware of this first TP level and if it struggled here to get out. I made around 90 pips so in this case considering the signal, I feel comfortable getting out now with my profit. It may go on but I don’t want to risk my winnings
Oh yes head and shoulders? Looks like a good plan, maybe I’ll try and catch it on the way back down too although I tend to steal clear of counter trends for now.
Hey what do you guys think of this possible setup on gbp/chf? Price was initially moving downward, but it recently made a quick move up to a former support area that is now resistance. A small pinbar formed, and it seems to be respecting the resistance area, which also happens to be a psychological level (1.4700). I’m planning to wait for a move back up to 1.4675 so that I can enter short. Stop loss would be at 1.4705 and Take profit at 1.462.
My concerns are that the pin is rather small. Also, there was a giant bullish candle prior to the bar, which could be a sign of momentum changing direction. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.
That is a safe way to do it and ensures that you stay in the green over time.
Well done
Cheers[/QUOTE]
Thanks Kasravi
I hope your having a good trading week, I’ve actually decided to get out of the EUR/USD with a 4 pip loss. Although the pin bar on the daily looked ok to me I feel as though it is too much of a gamble with the ECB announcement later today which could go either way, no doubt with a fair bit of volatility on the way. Am I over reacting? Although I know we aren’t meant to trade news, these bigger announcements make Benedict twitchy.
I saw this setup at yesterday’s NY close - I ended up not taking it - given ECB rate decision due today - but would be good to get everyone’s thoughts on the quality of the setup…thanks. I posted the following on another thread too (hence the quote marks).
"tempted by this - wouldn’t hesitate normally on setup like this one but there is the ECB rate decision tomorrow and wondering whether should avoid this for that reason…
otherwise there are more pros to this than cons. large 2 bar reversal on the weekly, key daily level, nicely formed pin bar on the daily (20 mins from NY close at time of posting).
only potential con is that with such a huge bearish move preceding this there could be a deeper pullback before the downtrend commences…ie to 50% of the weekly 2 bar reversal…
