I do, and why not. The market got all crazy on the news but as soon everyone calmed down again the candlestick shows us where the market wants to go from here.
Look at the EURCAD, daily for instance.
The craziness and hype pushed price down but then the big players stepped in and pushed price up and if price closes above the S/R level it means the market wants price to go up.
That is what price action is all about. Price tells you exactly what everyone in the market is doing even in this case after the news coming out. The market first interpreted the news as a big game changer but after some time they changed their mind and the results are a bunch of pin bars showing exactly that.
So i do not see any reason to ignore PA after news releases.
I agree with Diablo - but only so far as the daily charts are concerned (perhaps not intraday charts though). However, I trade only the dailiesā¦and thatās why coz I donāt have to worry about news event so muchā¦and the PA on the daily chart shows you how all the traders in all markets viewed the news for the dayā¦which is great information
A lot of the candles that formed today are of really large range though and I only like to place my stops beyond the tail of the PA candle, so, for example, I wonāt place stops at 50% or 62% of a long tailed pinbarā¦so my approach is going to be to use todayās PA as an indication of where the market could go next week and see what forms at the beginning of next weekā¦to try and get a better risk rewardā¦
However. the pinbar that looks like it is forming on GBPUSD looks interesting, despite strong dollar news today, the pound didnāt drop nearly so much as the other dollar pairs, so shows strength of the GBP [althouh maybe iām biased, because I am a Brit!] and small range of the pin makes it easier to tradeā¦
Pound in a trading range right now, so could squeeze in 3R (entering at 50% retrace of the pin) before the upper boundary of the range and go long in line with the prior uptrend in this marketā¦a more bullish close to the PB would have been nice though. still 20 mins to go before NY close at time of postingā¦
First I wanted to say thank you to everyone for your get wells. I am on the upswing now, but my wife is now starting with the crud.
Eternal, I thought this might make you feel better, I took a big loss today because I forgot to move one of my stop-losses to BE. I was short the USDCHF, it could have been a scratch but instead I took the full risk loss. I am trading on 2 accounts right now(Non Dealing Desk and Dealing Desk), I had shorting at the same time on both accounts but only moved to BE on one account. We all do, it becomes part of the business expense, haha.
Out of all of the crazy volatility today the only setup that really caught my eye was the AUDCHF. I apologize for no analysis, I would be curious to see other analysis on it.
[QUOTE=āMr B A Barracus;562186ā] Hi JPW I think this might be what they call slippage when a market gaps, but Iām not sure, hopefully someone with more experience can elaborate.[/QUOTE]
Yes, i spoke with the broker. They called it slippage
[QUOTE=ākrugman25;562191ā]First I wanted to say thank you to everyone for your get wells. I am on the upswing now, but my wife is now starting with the crud.
Eternal, I thought this might make you feel better, I took a big loss today because I forgot to move one of my stop-losses to BE. I was short the USDCHF, it could have been a scratch but instead I took the full risk loss. I am trading on 2 accounts right now(Non Dealing Desk and Dealing Desk), I had shorting at the same time on both accounts but only moved to BE on one account. We all do, it becomes part of the business expense, haha.
Out of all of the crazy volatility today the only setup that really caught my eye was the AUDCHF. I apologize for no analysis, I would be curious to see other analysis on it.
Glad your feeling better Krugman! I was on the CADCHF with the Trader 5000, it got very messy and then I was exterminated. The only trade Iām still in is the NZDUSD short thanks to Adamjn who gave me a heads up on the head and shoulders last night. And then this morning I noticed a pin bar on the 4hr chart and 1hr so I took it!
[QUOTE=ādaydreamer65;562188ā] This was discussed earlier in the thread when discussing leaving trades open during the week-end. What happens is the high volatility causes the brokers server to include a gap which jumps your stop loss & is only seen when the market calms down. If this is a real money account speak to your broker, they may be lenient to your case. If demo chalk it up as experience & close out open positions, or move your stop loss within your risk parameters obviously.[/QUOTE]
It is a real money account and i understood it could happen over the weekend. But it happened overnight last night while i was sleeping. Was unaware that could happen during the week. Is this my brokers fault for not getting a trade executed in time? Or just a consequence that has to be lived with in a volatile market such as EUR/USD was?
Yeah, these things can happen during really big moves like the ones that happened today. Price just ājumps overā your SL. There is great information and detailed explanation on the internet about that, google it.
EURUSD, 1 minute chart shows a 120+ move in less than one minute.
Hi Aaron, I saw this one but I wasnāt sure about it because given the highs and lows I thought it looked like there was a slight bullish bias to it so a short seemed counter trend to me, although volume does look impressiveā¦also I was finding it a bit difficult to figure out my take profit given the sloping trend line above the horizontal support level.
In my prior post, I fancy the GBPUSD setup myself because it is in a definable range, although the con with the GBPUSD setup is that it is in the middle of the range so not at key horizontal but it is rejecting dynamic EMA support, the PB now has a bullish close and the EMAs have just crossed upwards. I saw the 2bar reversal on the 4H and took my entry off that insteadā¦
Would be really interested to hear what you think of the GBPUSD setupā¦Cheers.
[QUOTE=āDiablo1505;562198ā] Yeah, these things can happen during really big moves like the ones that happened today. Price just ājumps overā your SL. There is great information and detailed explanation on the internet about that, google it. EURUSD, 1 minute chart shows a 120+ move in less than one minute. <img src=ā301 Moved Permanentlyā/>[/QUOTE]
So i know there were others in this trade. What did everyone else do to avoid this? I know in this thread we dont trade on days with big news events. But do we get out of trades we have been in for a couple days if a big news event is about to happen?
Glad you are feeling better but I will never feel better because of someoneās else loss (specially not you) but I know what you mean that it happens to everyone
BTW I was shoring USDCHF too and was taken at BE, I have become very aggressive with that BE move
the good news is that I just erased all of last moth losses (not of last week though) so any profit I make from now on is one step closer to my 1 million
Thatās great news, I am glad to see you are making up losses. Keep up the good work and stay disciplined.
I didnāt want you to feel good about me losing money, I just wanted to let you know we all make mistakes no matter how long we have been doing this thing. Itās easy to beat yourself up over something silly like forgetting to move a SL of a number of other mistakes that can be made executing a trade.
Some get out of trades, others like me try and move SLās to break even in case something crazy happens. I had a couple different trades open, except for the 1 trade I forgot to move my SL on, they were all stopped out with no loss. If you are in a trade that is in profit but not yet reached your target, you can move your SL to break even. The news may propel your trade quickly into TP or it may be a scratch, so no biggy.
[QUOTE=ākrugman25;562220ā] Some get out of trades, others like me try and move SLās to break even in case something crazy happens. I had a couple different trades open, except for the 1 trade I forgot to move my SL on, they were all stopped out with no loss. If you are in a trade that is in profit but not yet reached your target, you can move your SL to break even. The news may propel your trade quickly into TP or it may be a scratch, so no biggy.[/QUOTE]
I guess that is assuming there is no slippage. If i had moved my SL to BE, i would have lost 2x my SL rather than 3x i guess
I looked at the GBPUSD but nothing really stood out to me. The higher high/higher low pattern has been broken but I am looking at it is a range, with slight bullish bias. The pin bar that did form is right in the middle of the range so your SL would not have much protection and your TP is greatly diminished. If that pin bar was 150 pips lower, I would definitely be trading it.
There is a little bit of bullish bias on the AUDCHF, but the bar that formed gives us a very bearish near time signal. Another way to look it this is that we actually have a pennant forming, and the candle today did a false break of the upper trend line of the pennant, giving credence to the possibility that it may break lower. This would be a bearish pennant since the trend leading up to the formation of the pattern was bearish. Here we have another case where the candles have almost reached the apex, which lowers its quality. You can also take a look at the Aussies big brother, the NZD, and see we also have a large bearish pin bar. Between the two the Aussie gives us a much better setup.
