Good analysis you have done there. You have already pointed out the most important things. I have been monitoring this as well and have not yet decided if i want to take this trade or not. There are many pros for taking it and only small cons against it.
But there is one thing i am a bit worried about and that has kept me from placing any order. If you look on the weekly chart we have a massive 2 bar reversal pattern. But it is only at a minor s/r level. Looking to the left there is not much going on so this one is a bit tricky.
I am actually considering taking this trade myself which would be a bit of a hedge position to my other 2 short positions i currently have on the AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD.
[QUOTE=âmoonchild;563521â]Hey Guys, Iâve been a silent lurker for quite some time here and want to thank krugman25 first! Itâs been a great thread with many, many super informative posts and I learnt a lot in here! This seems to get the new James16 thread for me ;). Here is my trading idea for tomorrow. Maybe I can contribute something: 1. Clear downtrend 2. Nice Pinbar 3. Room for price to move down 4. Confluence of Pivot Zone, Trendline (and Fib level, not drawn on the chart) 5. Nice entry possible on retracement back the pinbar to get a good R/R Whatâs your opinion on this one [CADCHF D1]? <img src=â301 Moved Permanentlyâ/>[/QUOTE]
Hey moonchild, welcome to the community! I am glad to hear that the price action discussion here has been helping you out. Your in good company here as we are all striving to become better price action traders and using the right tools and methods to get the best trading edge. Itâs good to see you contributing on your first post! I look forward to having you apart of the PA discussion here.
Thanks again Aaron, that sounds great and would be very helpful to learn the trades where retracement wouldnât be considered. I really like the idea of retracement trades and I just need to learn when to use them. Once I feel more confident with them I will give them a proper test drive and see how it works out. I will definitely look forward to your next article.
[QUOTE=âDiablo1505;563528â]Like many of you i am running my trades through a filter before entering or deciding how much to risk. I know many of you use a 5 star rating but i just had to many filters and 5 points/stars where not sufficient for my trading plan. I thought iâd share how i rate my trades, maybe you can get something out of it if you are still working with putting your trading plan together. I only take trades that get 3 or more points. If a trade get 7 or more points i will double my risk on that particular trade. For instance my AUD/CAD weekly trade got 6 points out of 14 possible. Below are the things i am looking at when rating my trade: Well defined price action signal + 1 point Very strong price action signal + 2 points Signal on weekly chart + 1 point Minor Support/Resistance + 1 point Major Support/Resistance + 2 points Trend line + 1 point Big round number + 1 point Very big round number + 2 points Clear rise in volume + 1 point With the trend + 1 point Confluence at Fibonacci 50%/61,8% + 1 point Double top/bottom + 2 point Trading into traffic - 1 point Counter trend - 1 point Trading into very big round number - 1 point I hope you find it useful.[/QUOTE]
Good check list/point list. There are a couple traders here that use a similar method, to help then filter out bad trades. If then helps you trade then I encouraging you keep it up. The 5 star system looks at trades in absolute terms. Which means itâs looks at trades in %. So a 5 star trade would be those top 10-15% best quality trades. 2-4 would be the majority of your trades 60-70% that fall into that mid quality range. This means for you, a trade that falls in the 12-14 point range, for you have is a 5 star, and on down your point scale. If you are someone with a special 100 point rating method, your trades that make 85-100 points would be 5 star. Whatever point system or rating system you use, it can be translated into 1-5 star rating. I like the 5 star system because it is in absolute terms, so any type of custom point rating can be expressed as a star rating, also it gives enough levels for a trader to see their trades uniquely without going overboard and having a ton of different levels. I want to make sure we stick to the the 5 star system that way we are all in the same page when analyzing trade setup quality.
Great post, this is the only pinbar that I have been looking at over the weekend. Itâs very tempting isnât it? My problem with it is the support line that Iâd be trading into at 0.87123 and 0.86941 if I was to enter on the break of the pin which is a potential problem. It also cost me money last week I took the engulfing bar on the H4 to go short. Unfortunately it kept going and took out my stop loss. Iâm going to see what price does at the trendline before I decide to enter or not.
[QUOTE=âMr B A Barracus;563561â] Thanks again Aaron, that sounds great and would be very helpful to learn the trades where retracement wouldnât be considered. I really like the idea of retracement trades and I just need to learn when to use them. Once I feel more confident with them I will give them a proper test drive and see how it works out. I will definitely look forward to your next article.[/QUOTE]
I wonât have the article out this weekend but I have been working on it. I go on a business trip next week (flying to Texas), I am going to try really hard to get it out before I leave. I will cover all of those important issues in that article.
I wonât have the article out this weekend but I have been working on it. I go on a business trip next week (flying to Texas), I am going to try really hard to get it out before I leave. I will cover all of those important issues in that article.[/QUOTE]
Hey Aaron
Thereâs no rush, I know you must be massively busy. Whenever it arrives Iâll be there to check it out.
Would love to visit Texas, what a massive place that is, almost as big as Nantwhich. I could hang out at the Broken Skull Ranch with that crazy rattlesnake, drink some beers and open a can of whoop ass, give me a hell yeah!
[QUOTE=âMr B A Barracus;563570â] Hey Aaron Thereâs no rush, I know you must be massively busy. Whenever it arrives Iâll be there to check it out. Would love to visit Texas, what a massive place that is, almost as big as Nantwhich. I could hang out at the Broken Skull Ranch with that crazy s.o.b, drink some beers and open a can of whoop ass, give me a hell yeah! Thatâs the bottom line because BA said so! What?[/QUOTE]
Thanks BA, you are a patient group of traders here. Good thing since that is a key trait in trading! Haha. You guys do such a good job trading and posting good chart analysis, that in itself has huge educational value, so I thank all of you for that.
I will be right down by the Gulf of Mexico where a branch of our company is. I like Texas but I really love being at home here in the freezing cold upper Midwest.
Thanks BA, you are a patient group of traders here. Good thing since that is a key trait in trading! Haha. You guys do such a good job trading and posting good chart analysis, that in itself has huge educational value, so I thank all of you for that.
I will be right down by the Gulf of Mexico where a branch of our company is. I like Texas but I really love being at home here in the freezing cold upper Midwest. :)[/QUOTE]
That sounds awesome, I love the vastness of the states with the different climates and weather. When Iâve made my millions perhaps theyâll let me and Benedict move there! Living the dream!
I am currently watching for pullbacks to the trend line for a potential short entry. Entering at the break is safest but in this specific setup provide too low of a RR to fit my trading rules. We can see that volume has picked up on the past 2 days of selling. A break below .8500 would officially break the uptrend at which point I would begin looking for more shorting opportunities on the daily and intra-day charts.
If my investment firm works, Iâll consider moving back to the States. As much as I think the Forex policy in the States is somewhat weird at best, my times spent there is one of the best time in my life. Once I have successfully proven myself beyond doubt that my investment and trading plan can serve me well through the rest of my life, I will seek the opportunity to have Uncle Sam let me return there.
A branch company also sounds like a plan. Living in the States is great, [B]especially[/B] if you rise -and you should aim to- to the top 1%. That will be my plan for âlife, liberty, and pursuit of happinessâ.
New trade that I am planning on entering on the CHF/JPY 4H Charts. My sell stop is at 107.285 and my stop loss is at 107.505. It is a bearish 2-bar reversal that has formed rejecting a strong resistance zone.
Your charts donât look anything like mine, do you have NYClose on âbidâ chart? Does any one else agree this doesnât match their nyclose charts?
so what are the major news events that need to be watched for? Not necessarily for trading, but the days where we are not going to make a trade. Or for getting out of a trade prior to a certain news events. Seems like there are news events every day. Which are the major recurring ones that I need to know?
Been there, done that. Lake effect in Michigan, bless those Michiganders and Yoopers. Letâs just say I still ended up cycling regularly to the closest Wal-Mart even during the Winter season. Thank God for salt. :51:
I need to make sure my investment plan works beyond doubt first. Thatâs why I am also focusing my effort in fundamental analysis in stock market, as the capital market really offers you a huge opportunity to accumulate wealth⌠as long as you know how to read between the line whenever you read their financial statement. Iâll give you a little hint here, most company really go all the way to make sure the mainstreet investors never really understand whatever the company put in financial statement.
Anyway, Forex market like the one I did here with Krugman also offers the huge opportunity to accumulate wealth. But I want to include that as the âspeculativeâ part. I envision it as the part of investment portfolio, for daring investor especially. At the very least, the captain of industry -me in this case, maybe Krugman also if we do collaborate in the future-, must really have the skills to conduct the trade on field and end up consistently profitable in the long run.
Sure, no problem. As you say everything can easily be converted, the same applies to my list. The maximum number of points for my system is 14 so 14/5=2.8. My AUD/CHF trade got 6 points which then is 6/2.8=2.14. So it would only have a 2.14 star rating even though I consider it to be a really good setup.
In my system I only take trades that rate 3 points and up. A basic trade with a PA signal at a good s/r levels gets 3 points after applying my filter but that would only give it a 1.07 star rating in your terms. So this could get a bit confusing to others if I mention that I take trades with a rating that low⌠The reason is that the majority of my trades will fall into the lower range because I have so many points. A solution could be to raise the amount of points the trades get to only fulfill the basic requirements (3 points for a good PA signal and 3 points for beeing at a major s/r level for example).
It is still in the making so I will come up with something. Thanks for your input!
Check DailyFx.com. Focus on Red news as they also mean higher probability that Price will move accordingly. Orange and Blue news may work, but their probability is lower.
News analysis is not something we do here as PA traders there, but our best bet is to avoid NFP when it comes (and NFP occasionally comes in the weirdest time and date when Uncle Sam feels he wants to revise it). Unless you really are that good in news trading, avoid NFP at all cost.
I thought iâd share how i rate my trades, maybe you can get something out of it if you are still working with putting your trading plan together. I only take trades that get 3 or more points. If a trade get 7 or more points i will double my risk on that particular trade. For instance my AUD/CAD weekly trade got 6 points out of 14 possible. Below are the things i am looking at when rating my trade: Well defined price action signal + 1 point Very strong price action signal + 2 points Signal on weekly chart + 1 point Minor Support/Resistance + 1 point Major Support/Resistance + 2 points Trend line + 1 point Big round number + 1 point Very big round number + 2 points Clear rise in volume + 1 point With the trend + 1 point Confluence at Fibonacci 50%/61,8% + 1 point Double top/bottom + 2 point Trading into traffic - 1 point Counter trend - 1 point Trading into very big round number - 1 point I hope you find it useful.[/QUOTE]
I took the engulfing bar on the H4 to go short. Unfortunately it kept going and took out my stop loss. Iâm going to see what price does at the trendline before I decide to enter or not.
