[QUOTE=“Mr B A Barracus;564693”]Evening guys I’m not sure a Miley Cyrus party is my idea of fun, It sounds almost as painful as Benedict squealing like a little girl whilst he’s watching X Factor. Im pulling my mohican out tonight over these daily NZDCAD and NZDUSD pins, any thoughts on them? They appear nice and innocent and with trend at first view but maybe forming a double top pattern which would indicate a move down. On top of this, I would probably only look to take one of these, but which is the best? It’s a tough one because they look pretty identical. BA[/QUOTE]
I’m adding a new rule to the thread, no twerking, haha. The double top wouldn’t be confirmed until the last low is broke. It could be a double top or it could be the start of a range. A lot of ranges start as potential double tops/bottoms. I think the NZDCAD is the best looking of the two.
Hmmm… the double tops seems possible for NZDCAD, but I’d rather have the pinbar lower if we want to play it. The range looks well-defined there, so we can keep an eye on it for the next couple of days.
Haha thanks guys, I had to google twerking! I must be getting old…still it’s taught me a new dance move that I can add to my growing repertoire.
Also I’d never thought about double tops like that before Aaron, thank you for that, I should concentrate on what price is telling me and right now it is saying buy the NZD. Both pins meet all my requirements so I feel that I should take one of them. The USDCAD is sitting on a historically sound support and NZDCAD is pretty sturdy too. I’m leaning towards NZDCAD just because the risk is smaller (unfortunately so is the reward but only slightly) and seems to have less minor resistance. Hmmmm I’ll keep mulling this over, could be a long night.
Hmmm… the double tops seems possible for NZDCAD, but I’d rather have the pinbar lower if we want to play it. The range looks well-defined there, so we can keep an eye on it for the next couple of days.[/QUOTE]
Actually thats a good point, the NZDCAD would be nicer lower too. One thing that it’s brother, the NZDUSD has going for it, is that the pin is also sticking into my 200 day moving average. I’m confusing myself even more now
On the NZDCAD the pinbar is picture perfect and it formed near perfecting at the support level. If it was much lower it would have found the current support as a resistance. I think the worry here isn’t the candle or the support but rather the market context it has formed in, where it has been finding resistance for the past couple weeks.
Exactly, you want to put more weight into what has formed and what is happening, rather than what could form. I also want to point out that ascending triangles which are very bullish also start with a double top pattern. There are quite a few bullish patterns that start off as double tops, so you for sure want to wait for those to be firmed.
On the NZD cad the pinbar is picture perfect and it formed near perfecting at the support level. If it was much lower it would have found the current support as a resistance. I think the worry here isn’t the candle or the support but rather the market context it has formed it, where it has been finding resistance for the past couple weeks.
Nice volume there too! I’m going to take this one, I will only use half my usual lots and aim for TP at first resistance around 0.87440. The things I like about this one is the room above, lower risk in regards to stop loss, and it is with trend (a very bullish movement to the left before it began to possibly range)
The only issue I have is I’m also currently short on USDCAD so I’m effectively buying and selling the Canadian dollar. But I suppose as far as I can see there is little correlation between the two.
My support line is slightly higher, Krugman. It’s on 0.86355 instead of 0.86291. Thus I still don’t want to take it.
Can it still work at the end? Sure, why not? It’s just not for me, and I’ll watch it from the sideline. I think at this point what matters most is what your personal trade plan tells you what to do, and not what the other tells you what to do.
You will have a slight hedge since each one share the same currency, but there is nothing wrong with that. You just need to do the analysis and if you truly believe it is a trade that has an edge, take it and don’t let anyone talk you into or out of it. That is the great thing about measuring the quality of a trade, it may still have a good edge but not be that absolute perfect trade. Then you can just adjust your risk.
I completely reject the notion that a trade needs to wait for 4 weeks to take that 1 magical trade, when there are dozens of trades in the meantime that pass by that may not be the golden egg, but still provide you with a high probable setup and good RR.
Exactly, that is the same advice i just gave BA. Although now I am more confused. If your support line was higher than mine, and mine showed the pinbar body sitting directly on the support line, then why would you have wanted the pin bar lower? If that was the case the pin bar would have been beneath your support line, and would have made it untradable.
Thanks for all of your help Guys, Ive just put the padlock on Benedicts door for the night to stop him from visiting the Tescos 24hr store during twilight hours. Unfortunately his last visit resulted in arrest and a caution for indecent exposure.
I feel I can sleep well now having made my choice and will be ready with the Trader 5000 when the morning comes. I really appreciate your feedback which has made it much easier for me to way up the pros and cons.
I’m not in Texas yet, I leave on Monday morning. My boss wants me flying to Texas 1 week out of every month, so I will be doing a bit more traveling than I normally do. I have kind of a funny job setup. I live in Iowa, my boss lives in Louisianna, and we often travel to Texas to do hardware/software testing.
You took it out of context. What I mean before is that the range is well-defined (try drawing horizontal level between 0.8571 and 0.8760), and we may have a great PA in bottom range within several days. The trouble is still ahead, but at least we have more space for trades to move up. More importantly, the RRR will be much higher if the price can decisively break through the trouble area and move back to the upper range.
You will have a slight hedge since each one share the same currency, but there is nothing wrong with that. You just need to do the analysis and if you truly believe it is a trade that has an edge, take it and don’t let anyone talk you into or out of it. That is the great thing about measuring the quality of a trade, it may still have a good edge but not be that absolute perfect trade. Then you can just adjust your risk.
I completely reject the notion that a trade needs to wait for 4 weeks to take that 1 magical trade, when there are dozens of trades in the meantime that pass by that may not be the golden egg, but still provide you with a high probable setup and good RR.[/QUOTE]
Thanks again Aaron,
I completely agree with you and something I wouldn’t have learnt and understood before joining this awesome thread. I used to use the same lots for every trade I took, whether it was 1hr, 4hr or daily. Now I tend to stick with a rough amount of pips I’m willing to risk, usually about 30 on the 4hr and 50 on the dailys. Which also means I trade with a slightly higher lot amount on the 4hr than I do on the dailys which might sound crazy to some but it is working out well so far.
[QUOTE=“wm247;564756”] You took it out of context. What I mean before is that the range is well-defined (try drawing horizontal level between 0.8571 and 0.8760), and we may have a great PA in bottom range within several days. The trouble is still ahead, but at least we have more space for trades to move up. More importantly, the RRR will be much higher if the price can decisively break through the trouble area and move back to the upper range. ;)[/QUOTE]
I wasn’t trying to take it out of context, I just couldn’t make sense of it. I get what your saying now. A lot of times the second and third swing in a range don’t go all the way down to the horizontal level because it found support on a trend line, like we see with the NZDCAD. Teachers like Johnathon who only trade horizontal SR pass up a lot of good trades because of this. To them it looks like the price action is floating up and away from the horizontal line. Once you start drawing in things like EMAs and trend lines, you find out the candle formed perfectly on one of these other important non-horizontal S/R levels.
[QUOTE=“Mr B A Barracus;564757”] Thanks again Aaron, I completely agree with you and something I wouldn’t have learnt and understood before joining this awesome thread. I used to use the same lots for every trade I took, whether it was 1hr, 4hr or daily. Now I tend to stick with a rough amount of pips I’m willing to risk, usually about 30 on the 4hr and 50 on the dailys. Which also means I trade with a slightly higher lot amount on the 4hr than I do on the dailys which might sound crazy to some but it is working out well so far.[/QUOTE]
I am really glad to hear that! This thread is great, I enjoy seeing traders learning and growing rather than just copying a 1-2-3 step thing. I have actually been surprised at how many topics I have mentioned, people have never heard if before. That really motivates me even more to get the word out.
I do something very similar, I have a max account % risk depending in the TF. I will do up to 1% on the lower intra day TFs, and up to 3-5% on daily/weekly trades, and then I always adjust my risk within those boundaries based on trade quality.
May give you a better perspective on the amount you are risking in your trade setup. It does to me. :D[/QUOTE]
Cheers WM247 will check this out, I’ve looked at these type of calculators before but haven’t got on very well with them. I wasn’t very clear with explaining my lot sizing, there is a bit more to it than that as I work it out so that I am not risking any more than 2 - 4 percent of my account on any single trade depending on what it is. But what I’m trying to say is that Aaron’s teachings have taught me that I can adjust risk etc accordingly to the trade.
Don’t worry, even if I don’t like this setup from my perspective, I also admit that this setup may work at the end. If it fits your trade plan, by all mean take it. It’s just not for me as it’s not on my trade plan.
I like to think that someday you, Johnathon, or anybody here will be gone and I’m all alone in this Forex world. At that point, I really need to be ready to survive on my own as a one man army. The only think that I can rely on at that point is just my personal trade plan, with noone can change it but me. If I change my trade plan anytime I have doubt about something, then what’s the point of writing that plan from the beginning?
I am really glad to hear that! This thread great, I enjoy seeing traders learning and growing rather than just copying a 1-2-3 step thing. I have actually been surprised at how many topics I have mentioned, people have never heard if before. That really motivates me even more to get the word out.
I do something very similar, I have a max account % risk depending in the TF. I will do up to 1% on the lower intra day TFs, and up to 3-5% on daily/weekly trades, and then I always adjust my risk within those boundaries based on trade quality.[/QUOTE]
That sounds just like what I now do, I tend to risk up to 3% on the 1hr and 4hr charts and up to 5% on the dailys.
Good night guys! I’m gonna have to get some zzzzzzzz’s
