[QUOTE=“steve1972;569499”]Just took this one on the NZD/USD. Pro’s 1. At key level 2. with overall trend 3. Good Pinbar 4. Big volume spike Con’s 1. Against short term momentum. 3 out of 5. <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
You have a decent Pinbar at a key level but I would have to disagree with your view of the market bias. If you go to the weekly you have a large bearish 2 bar reversal. At the daily the pair is ranging at best and in short term momentum it is clearly bearish. I think you may have underestimated the bearish strength of this market. Where price is sitting right now it is just barely hanging on to support and a push downward could trigger a huge long squeeze and explosive moved further down. I am sure there were some shorts cashing in today and also traders buying off of key support, but it may not be enough to reverse the price. Price could float for a little bit longer above support before breaking lower. Go look at the audchf pair on the daily. About 2 weeks ago I called the short on that pair from a bearish engulfing bar off of trend line resistance, which has since moved a good 6-8 rewards from a potential retracement entry. You can see when it hit the first support it looked to potentially reverse, and then collapsed hard and triggered a huge short squeeze, hence the large bearish bar.
This is one of those cases where you want the safety of a daily signal to be extra confident of a trade against overall market bias. Sometimes on the intra day you will have 2 or 3 pin bars in a row before the buyers are able to absorb all of the sell orders and reverse price direction.
You’re right Aaron, as soon as i took the trade it plummetted south and missed my stop by 0.4 pips !!
I was worried about the short term bearish momentum beforehand but on closer inspection realized that it had only took 2 daily bear candles to span the entire range and that’s some serious bear power to stop with a 2 hr pinbar. I think I need to start looking at the bigger picture before diving in head first. I’ll re-read your post from earlier about taking into account the weekly candles. Thanks for your analysis coach.
Steve.
LOL I’m in this one about two weeks now… :-)[/QUOTE]
Wow nice one you must be getting some nice pips, I got stopped out at break even last night, I was playing it way too tightly but was concerned about the bullish engulfing bar that formed yesterday. I have taken 3 trades tonight though which I intend to stick out, NZDCAD and AUDUSD long and shorted USDSGD splitting my risk in three. I thought they looked like good set ups but we’ll see, it’s been a crazy week out there.
Looking at price action today, I adjusted my trade plan to fit the ever changing market story. Today we had a strong rejection from breaking below the key level of .8600. How and where a daily candle closes is very important to watch. I was watching too see if price would do 2 things, 1. close within the previous candle and 2. close above .8600. Both of these would give a bullish view of the market, and support the idea that price will bounce of reverse off key support at .8600. We saw both of these happened, and happened on high volume showing strength behind the moves. Yesterday we saw a very bearish price movement within an overall neutral/bearish market structure. What price did down towards support was key in deciding how and where to move stopped, where to shoot for profit etc. It’s also important to note that price had moved strongly bearish for a while, and was due for a corrective move. A major support is a good place for this to happen. Some may ask “just yesterday you were talking about shooting for a triple top pattern at shooting for a 1:15 RR”. I never manage todays trades from yesterdays price action, I am always watching how price is acting/reacting each day and making sure I am maximizing profit, and minimizing losses. I also had almost a 20% account increase tied up in this trade, I wasn’t going to risk losing 20% of my account on a hope and a wish. I also don’t believe in “house money”, the money I have made thus far I treat as my account money and letting the trade getting stopped out at break even would be the same to me as losing 20% of my account. I protected my profits and moved my stop loss to the nearest logical resistance line at .8640. It turns out that this was a great area, because as soon as price poked through the level, it immediately shot almost 35 pips higher. What does this mean now? I get to walk away with an awesome 1:6RR, and will continue watching for daily and intra day opportunity to trade with whatever direction this market is hinting that it wants to move.
Did you get in on a retrace of the AUDUSD pin bar? I will be looking to short intra day @ .9285[/QUOTE]
I actually caught this on the break as this is my least favourite trade of the three, I’m risking abut 70 pips. I took the 4 hour pin bar and added a fat buffer for my stop loss. Aud is very bearish at the moment but I am hoping this key zone will send it higher before falling back down.
Great explanation, really helps to see how you view the market dynamics…since there is now a large daily pin bar showing rejection of the 0.8600 on that pair, now you’ve taken profit on your short would you consider taking a long now off this daily pin bar to trade to the upper resistance of the range boundary at 0.8769, or if not would be interested to know why you wouldn’t consider that a valid setup. I’m not trading this pair currently, incidentally. My view is that the weekly chart is inconclusive as to near term bias, long term the trend was up and you mention the strong rejection of lower prices with high volume and this is a very key level so would now seem like a valid long setup to me, but it just seems kind of aggressive to keep trading from one edge of a range to another like that, or is that just hesitance? (Hope you don’t mind all the questions, am just intrigued and is great learning. Thanks, mate)
[QUOTE=“mancamy;569674”] Great explanation, really helps to see how you view the market dynamics…since there is now a large daily pin bar showing rejection of the 0.8600 on that pair, now you’ve taken profit on your short would you consider taking a long now off this daily pin bar to trade to the upper resistance of the range boundary at 0.8769, or if not would be interested to know why you wouldn’t consider that a valid setup. I’m not trading this pair currently, incidentally. My view is that the weekly chart is inconclusive as to near term bias, long term the trend was up and you mention the strong rejection of lower prices with high volume and this is a very key level so would now seem like a valid long setup to me, but it just seems kind of aggressive to keep trading from one edge of a range to another like that, or is that just hesitance? (Hope you don’t mind all the questions, am just intrigued and is great learning. Thanks, mate)[/QUOTE].
The market is showing rejection of lower prices but that doesn’t justify a switch and go long. It wouldn’t fit my criteria of a high quality long trade. If there was a high quality price action candle that formed off of support I would consider going long. Until the top or bottom range is broken we have a simple range and it’s best to trade extremes of this range off of clear rejections of these extremes. There is nothing wrong with trading a range and switching positions as each end of the range is reached and rejection candles fire off. In this case we see price finding support but not the large and clear rejection candle we will need for a long trade.
Hi Aaron, you said this wasn’t a high quality long trade because “we see price finding support but not the large and clear rejection candle we will need for a long trade” and not a t a key level. But 0.8580 looks like a very key level as obvious PA formed at that level and set off big moves in the past and some obvious pinbars formed and yesterday’s daily candle is a decent pinbar (even though there’s a wick on the nose, prior PA also had that feature and still came off to the long side) - so when you get a moment I’d be grateful if you could explain why it’s not a key level and the PA is not obvious.
The main con on this that I can see is that bias is unclear on weekly (IMHO) and prior to yesterday’s candle the move to the short side has been much quicker, it only took on candle this time, so that might suggest a more bearish bias has entered the market.
[QUOTE=“mancamy;569801”]Hi Aaron, you said this wasn’t a high quality long trade because “we see price finding support but not the large and clear rejection candle we will need for a long trade” and not a t a key level. But 0.8580 looks like a very key level as obvious PA formed at that level and set off big moves in the past and some obvious pinbars formed and yesterday’s daily candle is a decent pinbar (even though there’s a wick on the nose, prior PA also had that feature and still came off to the long side) - so when you get a moment I’d be grateful if you could explain why it’s not a key level and the PA is not obvious. The main con on this that I can see is that bias is unclear on weekly (IMHO) and prior to yesterday’s candle the move to the short side has been much quicker, it only took on candle this time, so that might suggest a more bearish bias has entered the market. <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
I don’t disagree that the level is a key level, but the price action setup was not high quality. In a PA setup you want the candle to be equal to or larger than the previous candle. We can see this candle was over 2 times smaller. Also you would have been trading into a huge selloff. If you are going to be trading into a huge red candle, the reversal candle needs to be large and commanding. The market looks like it could go either way, so any play right now would be close to just guessing.
I felt the USDNZD was more clearly bearish, so I shorted it last night at .8207, and it has since fallen lower.
when you get a chance to post that nzdusd setup would be interested to see, I was looking at that but i wasn’t that clear where the key s/r level was on the daily, it seemed a bit further down to me. I assume you took an intraday entry…
Am going over all the learning material again in this thread at the moment to get a filter checklist down so I hope I’ll be able to post some better setups soon myself. Cheers,
[QUOTE=“mancamy;569938”] I get it…thanks. when you get a chance to post that nzdusd setup would be interested to see, I was looking at that but i wasn’t that clear where the key s/r level was on the daily, it seemed a bit further down to me. I assume you took an intraday entry… Am going over all the learning material again in this thread at the moment to get a filter checklist down so I hope I’ll be able to post some better setups soon myself. Cheers,[/QUOTE]
Yes it was intra day. I had marked a fairly major SR level at .8225. On the intra day price pulled back and formed a pin bar. I was much happier to be short on the NZDUSD as the daily candle had close more bearishly than the NZDCAD.
Yes it was intra day. I had marked a fairly major SR level at .8225. On the intra day price pulled back and formed a pin bar. I was much happier to be short on the NZDUSD as the daily candle had close more bearishly than the NZDCAD.[/QUOTE]
The NZDCAD is currently testing the reinforced 3 point locking system of the Trader 6000, this was clearly a bad position for me to take, one of many this week. I feel as though I have gone back to square one, all the trades I opted out of all played out well and the ones I did take have all gone kabooom! All the gains I made over the last few weeks have been seriously diminished in this last 7 days, I was so close to my first target but will now have to climb that mountain again. Back to the drawing board!
Did you get in on a retrace of the AUDUSD pin bar? I will be looking to short intra day @ .9285[/QUOTE]
Hey Aaron
I got busted out of this one and im now currently holding a short position from the 4 hour pin bar that formed against the broken resistance now support earlier today.
The new updates to the trader 6000 means that it works with the rhythm of the current trades and not against it, thankfully the NZDCAD is now retracting a little allowing for a release of pressure in the body suit. I fear this is just a respite before re-entry.
The new updates to the trader 6000 means that it works with the rhythm of any current trades and not against them, thankfully the NZDCAD is now retracting a little allowing for a release of pressure in the body suit. I fear this is just a respite before re-entry.[
The NZD is the little engine that could, haha. It looks like it is pulling back up into support again in another show of bullish strength. Looking at the AUDNZD, there is a great looking bearish pinbar/hammer that has formed off of overlapping trend line and horizontal resistance. If it wasn’t intra day on Friday I would have seriously consider taking it. What upgrades did you make in the trader 6000 from the trader 5000?
<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]
how did you mange your stop on that trade? Never sure on a range trade…thanks
