Steve,
Looks like a good setup to me. I have noticed quite a few potentially good NZD shorts this morning. This setup is particularly favorable because you are getting in line with the weekly price action also. You may see an accelerated selloff as you are in line with both long term and medium term market bias.
I barely have any buttocks left for the Trader 6000 to clench following that USDSGD spike but somehow we live to fight another day.
I notice a Pinbar has now formed on the NZDCAD hourly followed by an engulfing bar to go long from what I can tell from my mobile phone. Is this the case? Maybe I should jump back onto the ship, whatās your thoughts?
Edit - No engulfing bar, just a Pinbar with volume.
To be honest it looks like it could go either way, as their are some contradicting price action signals on various TFs. I would suggest sitting it out until it shakes out one way or another.
I may need to borrow your trader 6000 for a bitā¦ :eek:
Just started reading this thread, when Iām caught up Iāll join in the discussion. I need to get internet service and a home computer also. Just went through several months of unemployment and have to get caught up financially. So Iāll lurk and read from work/library computers untill then 
[QUOTE=ākrugman25;571540ā]
I may need to borrow your trader 6000 for a bitā¦ :eek:[/QUOTE]
Haha itās a crazy week again, are you in on the USDSGD trade too? Or is the trader 6000 for another?
[QUOTE=āMr B A Barracus;571560ā] Haha itās a crazy week again, are you in on the USDSGD trade too? Or is the trader 6000 for another?[/QUOTE]
Not USDSGD, a different pair. I started off the week with a couple winners so I am not looking too bad right now, but one trade hovering precariously close to my SL.
Hey Aaron,
Trust your trip went well, welcome back.
Just a quick question about what time frame we should use to manage our trades. Iāve read you SAY manage your trade on the same time frame that you entered. Can you explain the rationale for that?
My feeling is that if we are marking key levels, by pdefinition these would be daily or weekly levels, them even if you take intraday PA if it is at a key level (ie daily) then why not manage the trade off the daily? since intraday price action tends to be noisier I feel I am more likely to be able to let my profits run if I am managing the trade off the daily chart. This is provided always of course I am entering off a daily or weekly level, in the right place in the structure of he market.
Thanks
[QUOTE=ākrugman25;571574ā]
Not USDSGD, a different pair. I started off the week with a couple winners so I am not looking too bad right now, but one trade hovering precariously close to my SL.[/QUOTE]
Good for you Aaron, Iāll look forward to hearing about them at some point. My trading is pretty stagnated at the moment which is frustrating. I havenāt taken any trades this week but Iām still in the AUDUSD from last week which I plan on riding down plus the USDSGD which I regret taking now as it is clearly bullish. Basically the two are cancelling each other out. Thanks also for the advice on the NZDCAD, itās what my mind was screaming at me but sometimes it helps to hear it from someone else :).
this is my first chart on this thread, its EURGBP daily. for me the light blue rectangle looks like a really good level to be looking for shorts, although its still a way off i think its definitely worth keeping an eye on. depending on where (if) it hits its at a very strong SR level which has acted as SR many times on daily, weekly and monthly tfās. its the 61.8 retrace of the last swing and a reasonably strong trend line. its also just below 0.8500
For anyone considering shorting NZDUSD, take note that there is a significant support @ 0.8100 which is relatively close to the developed reversal signal. Personally, I will be waiting for a break and retest of that level before price heads toward the July lows for a retest.
Question on closing out a portion of your trade while letting the other portion run on for profitā¦
Heard different schools of thought on this, I read Aaronās lesson about, if you are doing to close out a portion you want to make sure the next portion of profit you take is at correct RRā¦assuming we always do thatā¦mathematically isnāt it still better to let your trade run to your determined profit level and close the whole trade out. Isnāt that more profitable in the long run? This assumes you can let your trade run and you pick the best take profit level.
Or maybe, the answer is that you should determine which approach to take depending on the market context? Ie keep the whole trade on and not close out a portion if you are in a very strongly trending market and trail your stop?
Interested in peopleās thoughts on this.
Thanks
Personally I think it depends on market context. In a heavily trending pair (audusd at the moment) it might be advisable to scale into the trade instead of out of it. Therefore increasing your profit while never increasing your risk. In a ranging market I like to take 50% off at the middle of the range and move the stop to BE. You can never really predict whats going to happen in the middle unless there is a lot of momentum in your favour. I think its really just down to experience and skill. Ive never actually done the maths for it. I could try and work something out if u would like
Hi Steve,
your setup looks very ambitious. How are you going to manage this trade? I keep thinking about this, and this looks like 1 star or 2 star at most if Iām being generous. My main concern is that there is no strong PA signal to go short at all, and the PAs for now look kinda stuck in traffic.
hey wookieā¦would be interested to hear on the stats/maths side if thatās your bagā¦if itās not too time consuming for you.
I agree though, otherwise, it probably comes down to picking the right method depending on the market context, but some PA salesman advocating NEVER scaling out no matter what. I was wondering what people thought about that approach generally?
Cheers.
Hi Will, There was a good pinbar on the 12 HR chart rejecting the daily resistance level 0.8218. I set a pending order at 0.8210 which got triggered this morning by 1 pip. As I am away on vacation for a couple of weeks I will let it run as a kind of experiment to see how it goes without any interference whatsoever. Depending on where price is before I leave I will probably move my S/L to breakeven.
Thanks, Jason!
Iāll talk to you at your Broker Aid Station.
12 hr chartā¦ can you post one, please? Iām still having problem with FXCM. 
I am going through the last few dozen pages to answer questions now. Forgive me if I answer something thatās already been answered. In the case of a retracement entry you want your standard stoploss setup which is above/below the candle wick with a little bit of a buffer. This is standard for a retracement entry stoploss and the only time you chance this is if you enter at the break and you want to modify your SL so that you achieve a better RR.