Price Ignoring Key Footprint Levels, What Am I Missing?

Trading Discussion
1

Hi everyone, I have a question related to trading.

I’m currently trading crypto and focusing specifically on the SUI/USDT pair. I’m analyzing price movements on the 1-hour (1H) timeframe, while my key support and resistance levels are derived from the 1-day (1D) timeframe (as shown in the image).

I’m also using a footprint chart on the 1H timeframe. Here’s where my question comes in:

On the chart, you’ll see a large grey area representing the 1D timeframe zone, and within that, I’ve marked two smaller gray zones—labeled 1H_TF_footprint_1 and 1H_TF_footprint_2. These were created based on footprint chart analysis.

For 1H_TF_footprint_1, I based it on 2 million contracts, high volume, and a noticeable imbalance. I expected the price to reach that level and then drop—but that didn’t happen.

Then I created 1H_TF_footprint_2, using this criteria: 1 million contracts, high delta, and strong volume. This zone actually also was not respected.

Later on, I observed that price eventually moved up and it seems the price reacted to a big red candle with 2 million contracts, high volume, and a large negative delta, after which the price began to fall (as visible in the image).

My questions are:

Why weren’t both of the small grey zones respected?

Why it seems the price reacted to such a big red candle?

Is my analysis flawed? If those zones are not valid, could you help me understand why?

What should I do in this kind of situation? (Note: I didn’t enter any trades.)

Thanks in advance

graph_with_footprint
graph_with_footprint1920×1026 138 KB

2

My guess is that you haven’t necessarily “missed anything” at all, but I’m wondering whether perhaps your expectations of the reliability of the kind of TA “signs” you’re discussing might be very much on the high side, and to be honest maybe a little unrealistically so?

Nothing’s as reliable as you seem to expect, you know? There are always some bad entries and losing trades. That’s normal.

Perhaps especially with crypto, which is widely regarded as (at best) a somewhat “hysterical market”?

8 Likes
3

Thanks for your reply. I get your point, and I do understand that nothing in trading is 100% reliable and that losing trades are part of the game.

However, when you mentioned unrealistic, i would like to understand if you know or maybe you see more important points that would improve my analysis or change if needed I’m just trying to understand the behaviour of price in context — especially when confluence appears between higher timeframe levels and volume-based signals like imbalances or absorption.

I agree that crypto can be a wild market, but I also believe there’s still logic in the moves, even if it’s not perfect. I’m here to refine my understanding, not chase certainty.

Thank you in advance