An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Bias:The 1.3470 resistance provides the key to any further gains
Daily Bullish:The upside did make progress yesterday but not too convincingly with a test just short of the key 1.3470 resistance this morning. This is a critical point. A break above here would see gains follow-through towards 1.3540-60 at least where we need to take care and probably over time to 1.3616. Next major resistance is at the 1.3666 high.MT Bullish:Having reviewed the long term cycles and wave structure we feel there is no room for a move back to 1.2865 and thus this rally should remain above 1.3240-50 for a test of 1.3666 which should cap. (April 12th)Daily Bearish:Gains are being seen steadily. Due to the rather erratic nature of the gains since the 1.3253 low we feel the 1.3470 level should cap and cause a reversal lower. Confirmation will come on a break below 1.3406 and if seen would extend the downside to the 1.3313-39 area at least. MT Bearish:The 1.3470 resistance is crucial and while this caps there is risk of a second test back down to the 1.3240-53 area. However, if seen this should provoke a rally again. Any earlier test of 1.3666 should be sold. (April 12th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We have come to a critical point. The 1.3470 level represents a 38.2% expansion of the 1.3410-1.3253 decline. Should the 1.3470 level cap then it would imply a move back down to the Wave efa 1.3253 low again with the 50% retracement in Wave –iv- lying at 1.3241. This would then cause a final rally in Wave –c- to the 1.3666 weekly high which is expected to cap.
Any earlier break above 1.3470 would imply a direct rally to test the 1.3666-68 being a 76.4% projection in Wave –v- and where the major high on the 31st December 2004 lies.
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