Pro Commentary Lite 12th April 2007 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.2146

Bias:While 1.2118-31 supports we feel there may be room for a return to 1.2244-50
Daily Bullish:Losses were seen as preferred and these reached just below the 1.2140-50 support, stalling at 1.2131. We see support here and at 1.2118 and feel this may well hold any losses and if so a move back above 1.2155 should then lead to a test of the 1.2181 pivot area with break there forcing a move back to the 1.2207-12 area which could cause a small pullback ahead of a retest of 1.2244-50. At this point we feel it will hold for a second test lower. Thus only above 1.2250-55 would retest 1.2282.MT Bullish:The failure to break lower is causing the wave structure to develop a potential strong break higher. A move above 1.2281-00 would heighten this with resistance then at 1.2354, 1.2402 and 1.2525. (April 9th)Daily Bearish:Losses reached just below the 1.2140-50 support and we do still see minor risk of this extending to 1.2118. However, at this point we feel it may hold. Thus a more bearish stance will require a break of 1.2118 and if seen would extend the downside to 1.2074-82 where we need to take a little care. Further support is then seen at 1.2029-50 which should hold if seen.MT Bearish:We have seen losses that have moved below 1.2145 but the nature of the decline is a little uncertain and before we get further bearish we will need a break below 1.2229-50. (April 13th)


12th April

It certainly looks as if we may have seen a Wave –x- at the 61.8% retracement at 1.2281. This would imply additional losses but since we have had only two ABC structures higher it may be prudent to keep in mind the possibility of a third ABC pattern.

Price has reached a 76.4% retracement at 1.2250 and this may just imply a triangle which would see support around 1.2140-50. Thus use this as a clue – below would imply losses to the 1.2029-34 area being a 138.2% projection in a potential Wave iii of a new Wave (a) lower.

13th April
Care is required at this point which could still see a return to 1.2244-50 in an expanded flat. Given the wave structures elsewhere we would need to see break of the wave equality target at 1.2068.
Ian Copsey
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