Pro Commentary Lite ... 12th February 2008 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 106.84

[B]Bias:[/B]While 106.65-70 holds the risk is still higher to 107.88 else expect a test of 105.69-88
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Loss was seen of 106.65 but stalled at 106.33. The recovery seems too deep for the downside to resume and thus the upside does seem to have the edge. This will require the 106.65-70 area to support while a break above 107.15-20 will assist higher toward s107.46 at least. Take care here as if this peaks we should continue to see sideways consolidation. Only above 107.46 would see a fuller test of the 107.81-88 highs once again but should hold on first test. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]Recent trading has been messy but has remained above the 104.95 low as suggested and thus I remain cautiously bullish for 107.88, 108.60-96 and 109.74 at the very least. ([B]4th February[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Losses fell between two stools but the recovery from 106.33 does appear quite deep for a bearish scenario. Thus be cautious on the downside and wait for a break below 106.65. If this occurs the downside will come under pressure again for a break of yesterday’s 106.33 low and for follow-through to 105.88 at least. This may hold. Only below extends to 105.37-69 again. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]We are seeing the expected correction from the 104.95 target and this should last for a while. Selling opportunities should be considered around 109.80-110.11. Below 104.95 sees losses to 103.44. ([B]25th January[/B])


[B]12th February[/B]

Under the triangle scenario I called for a low around 106.65-75. This was broken but the recovery from 106.33 does look too deep for a Wave c lower in a flat correction.

This means we are setting up for a stronger move – we just have to decide the direction. For the moment I have labeled yesterday’s low as Wave x. This should imply gains back to the 107.81-88 area in a new Wave a to be followed by a Wave b before we finally see breach of that resistance.

Overall targets in Wave B are at 109.80 (50%) and 110.35 (61.8%.)

If I am wrong then we could be seeing a deeper decline. This would be confirmed on a move below 106.33 and then 105.37-69.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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