Pro Commentary Lite ... 12th June 2007 ... AUDUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 0.8433

Bias:While 0.8450 continues to cap I look for loss of 0.8425 to cause losses to 0.8365 & 0.8319 at least
Daily Bullish:Price didn’t quite progress as expected but has remained below the critical 0.8448-50 area. Indeed, before we can get too bullish we still need that break and only if seen would I then begin to look for a move back towards 0.8507-17 at least. Around here (and at 0.8526) we need to be cautious but gains above this higher level would keep the momentum higher for 0.8558 at least. MT Bullish:The 0.8594 level remains as a target but we may just see an initial drop to 0.8282-00 first. Only a direct break above 0.8475 then 0.8517 would see the rally immediately. (June 11th)Daily Bearish:I don’t really like the pattern we saw yesterday but I still feel that we require a correction before the next leg higher can be seen. Thus while 0.8450 continues to cap I still prefer a scenario calling for losses below 0.8425 to trigger a retest of the 0.8365 low. This area may well cause a pullback so take care. A clean breach of last week’s low would extend the downside to 0.8319-24 at least. Major support is at 0.8282-00. MT Bearish:Gains have been strong and the structure implies additional gains. However, there is an earlier risk of a move back to 0.8282-0.8319 but only below 0.8280 would highlight the risk of stronger losses (June 8th)


8th June

The breach of the 0.8398 low implies the possibility of a deeper pullback due to the break of the last significant corrective low in the sequence of higher lows in the trend.

I also expect the rally in Wave [v] to come in three waves and as such I have labeled the 0.8475 high as Wave [a] and thus we can generate potential supports in Wave [b] at 0.8355 (38.2%) and 0.8319 (50%) and at most the 0.8282 level (61.8%).

A 61.8% projection in Wave [v] implies a target of 0.8594 which is also where a daily Wave (iii) has a target.
Ian Copsey
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