An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 103.04
[B]Resistance:[/B]103.57103.73104.00104.22[B]Support:[/B]102.90102.70102.48102.23
[B]Bias:[/B]Mixed – waiting for breaks
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The 101.40 low held for a second time from where we have seen a solid rally. It also set up a potential double bottom which has a target around 105.00-05. For this to develop directly we shall need the 102.70 level to hold and force a second rally up through yesterday’s 103.57 high which should then set up a test of 104.22 minimum and probably to 104.63. Above this needs to be handled with care. The double bottom suggests 105.05 but there is also sturdy resistance around 104.80.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]The downside has been relentless but given we are around the long string of lows around 101.20-60 there does seem to be a stronger argument for a correction towards 104.59-80 at least – max 105.02-39. ([B]10th March[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The sharp recovery is positive for the bullish stance but there is risk that we’ll see a choppy recovery from here in which price could easily slide lower. The break area for a direct rally is at 102.70. Thus a break below here opens risk for a messy decline down to 102.48 and 102.23 and probably max at 101.91. Even then with the corrective low at 101.41 I cannot totally rule out an even deeper pullback. Thus be aware of the support levels and watch reactions at each. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]Losses have been seen without much of a pullback. There is a large daily target at 98.90. Ahead of that there is a string of targets at 100.46, 100.16 and 99.58. I would prefer to see a pullback before reaching. ([B]11th March[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
[B]12th March[/B]
We have seen Wave –iii- at 101.40 although the internal wave relationships have not been too accurate. There is a 38.2% retracement in Wave –iv- at 104.00 and 41.4% at 104.22 followed by the 50% at 104.80 and the double bottom target at 105.05 which is also a pivotal area.
If I have any preference between these it is actually the 104.22 area which would set up a 76.4% projection in Wave –v- to reach the 98.90 target where Wave C will equal Wave A.
However, watch out for the correction becoming complex – so a flat/expanded flat/triangle.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]
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[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Comprehensive analysis to guide you through the day[/ul]