An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Bias:[/B]I feel there may be room for one last attempt lower to 0.9697-13 – above 0.9785 reverses directly
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Loss of 0.9785 did indeed cause a test of the top end of the 0.9713-26 range and this may have caused a final low. However, until the 0.9785 resistance breaks there is still chance of one final decline. From a momentum point of view I prefer the new low between 0.9697-13 which should be a good buying spot. Thus only a direct move above 0.9785 would trigger stronger gains back to the 0.9833 area which should cause a small pullback. Above -> 0.9850 & 0.9894-08.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]Having reviewed longer term charts there is a common target around 0.9690-0.9726 and I feel we are due a much larger reversal higher. First major stop should be around the 1.0014 peak. ([B]12th October[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]A low has been seen just above the 0.9713-26 support. This may have been [I][B]the[/B][/I] low but ST momentum doesn’t yet confirm. Thus while 0.8777-85 caps there does seem one last chance of losses back to the 0.9697-13 area. However, I feel this should hold and cause a reversal higher. Next support is at 0.9639 but I don’t think we’ll get there. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]On review I don’t think we’ll get to 0.9639 although it is one target from the shorter term charts. More likely the low will occur around 0.9697-13 – or maybe we saw it yesterday. Only below 0.9639 is bearish. ([B]12th October[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
It is unclear whether the pullback to 0.9791 is part of a deep correction or part of a minor Wave v lower. While 0.9843-70 caps in a possible Wave b there is then still risk of losses to targets at 0.9713-26.
There are a group of targets from the weekly, daily and hourly charts around 0.9697-13. Monthly, weekly and daily charts all have extreme bullish divergences. Hourly and 4-hour do not have these divergences and thus ideally on the next decline to the 0.9697-13 area we should see a low in Wave –v-.
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