Pro Commentary Lite ... 13th May 2008 ... USDCAD

An excerpt from Pro Commentary [B]Price:[/B] 1.0059
[B]Resistance:[/B]1.00661.00901.01171.0150[B]Support:[/B]1.00110.99970.99660.9931

[B]Bias:[/B]While 1.0066-90 caps there is still downside risk else breach extends gains to 1.0143-60
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Losses were seen which stalled at 1.0024. I also see support at 1.0011. While there can be any follow-through higher we shall need this 1.0011-24 area remain intact. A subsequent break back above 1.0066 would see 1.0080-90. However, this could cap. Only a direct breach would extend gains through 1.0117 to the 1.0143-60 area at least. Take acre here as this could hold if we are seeing a sideways consolidation. Above sees follow-through to 1.0202 and probably 1.0241-72. [B]MT Bullish:[/B][B]13th May:[/B] Price has pulled back lower but hasn’t necessarily broken a bullish structure. However, we’ll need break above 1.0090 and then 1.0160 to maintain direct gains to 1.0241-72 initially. [B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Losses were seen yesterday and this allows a potential bearish structure to be present. However, we’ll need the 1.0062-90 area to cap. From there a move below 1.0011-24 would imply direct losses below 0.9997 and through to 0.9931 at least. I suspect though that if seen the chances would actually favor a move down to 0.9896 and 0.9338-45. [B]MT Bearish:[/B][B]12th May:[/B] This entire choppy sideways pattern hasn’t clarified the direction. However, right now we need a break below 0.9997 to maintain losses for 0.9931 and probably 0.9838-45.
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]

[B]13th May[/B]
Are we seeing a triangle in Wave (b) or a direct decline in Wave ©? The 1.0011-24 are must hold while the triangle remains valid. This would imply the next peak at 1.0143-60.
Direct loss in Wave © would imply a wave equality target at 0.9931 and a 138.2% projection at 0.9838 which is just below the 76.4% retracement in Wave (ii).
Only an earlier break above 1.0160 would imply direct gains in a Wave iii to the 138.2% projection at 1.0272 and possibly the 176.4% projection at 1.0338.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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