Pro Commentary Lite ... 14th March 2008 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 1.0107
[B]Resistance:[/B]1.01341.01601.01981.0234[B]Support:[/B]1.00801.00501.00150.9993

[B]Bias:[/B]The target remains at 0.9959-93 but there is risk of a pullback to 1.0234 (max 1.0279) before
Daily Bullish:Loss of 1.0127 has generated additional losses and a minor bullish divergence. I suspect we should still see just a little more pullback while 1.0058-80 supports. A break back above the 1.0160 high seen thus far should extend gains towards 1.0198 at least and possibly 1.0234. I cannot even rule out 1.0279 though this would be a particularly deep correction. Above there would mean a return to the 1.0352 corrective high.MT Bullish:The downside is beginning to tire ever so slightly and it will be worth watching the favored target at 0.9959-93 – and also 0.9924. Next support is 0.9851-76. From one of these areas we should see a bounce. ([B]14th March[/B])Daily Bearish:The support at 1.0079-99 broke down though this caused a move to 1.0043 from where we have seen a bounce. It tends to suggest that while another low is due there may be risk of a pullback first with resistance to watch at 1.0198-1.0234 and maximum 1.0279. From here – or directly - a move back below 1.0043 would extend the decline to the favored long term target range at 0.9959-93. Take care as this could generate a larger recovery. Breach extends losses down to 0.9924 & probably 0.9851-76.MT Bearish:We should now see a deeper correction which I feel will come to a peak between 1.0480-1.0509 – max 1.0545-88. From there we can concentrate on downside targets at 0.9959 at most 0.9876 and 0.9760. ([B]12th March[/B])

[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]

[B]14th March[/B]

Losses appear to be intent on being more direct than I had thought. There is a (very) small bullish divergence in the daily chart and quite a moderate one in the weekly and we should therefore make note of the daily 66.7% Wave (v) target at 0.9993 and the daily 161.8% Wave © target at 0.9959. Beyond is the 261.8% Wave © target at 0.9876 and the daily 76.4% Wave (v) projection at 0.9760.

At the moment I am concentrating on the 0.9959-93 target. Counting the 1.0352 peak as Wave –iv- and yesterday’s low being Wave –a- a 50%-61.8% pullback in Wave –b- is at 1.0198-1.0234. A 76.4% pullback is at 1.0279. We should then look for Wave –c- to move to target.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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