Pro Commentary Lite 15th March 2007 ... AUDUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 0.7863

Bias:We still prefer a bullish stance but would like to work with breaks
Daily Bullish:Gains seen as preferred yesterday which stalled just below the 0.7883 high. We continue to prefer a bullish stance but given the high level of volatility we’d prefer to see the 0.7873-83 area break. Once seen it should spur price higher to 0.7930 at least where we need exercise care. Break there suggests a stronger test of 0.7979-81 which we feel should cap for a move lower. MT Bullish:While the 0.7797 low seen yesterday remains supporting there is still risk of gains back above 0.7848 and 0.7883 that would threaten the 0.7945-80 area once again. (March 14th)Daily Bearish:With the gains stalling below the 0.7883 high we need be a little cautious. However, before getting too bearish we will need to see the 0.7840 support and if this occurs then expect the downside to edge lower towards 0.7800-20 where again we need be careful as this could cause a pullback. A stronger bearish stance would require breach of this support and if seen would trigger losses down to 0.7786 and possibly 0.7758.MT Bearish:Additional gains seen and therefore to revert to the downside we shall need a break back below 0.7797. If seen it heightens the risk for losses to 0.7750-55 and then down to 0.7718 & 0.7680. (March 14th)


15th March

The wave structure is still unclear but we tend to feel it is occurring in a corrective structure of multiple ABC patterns. We are choosing to count the high at 0.7883 as Wave a and 0.7797 as Wave b. A wave equality target comes in at 0.7930 while a 138.2% projection comes in at 0.7981.

Therefore we watch this but need to consider the possibility of the Wave b developing in a complex pattern such as a triangle which would have a base around 0.7800-20.

This lower level would therefore act as the break level for a more bearish structure.
Ian Copsey
See Also

[*]FX Strategy Pro CommentaryComprehensive and insightful analysis[/ul]