Pro Commentary Lite ... 18th July 2007 ... USDCHF

[B]An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary[/B]

[B]Price:[/B] 1.1978

[B]Bias:[/B]While this morning’s 1.1971 support holds there is risk of pullback – but respect a break for 1.1884
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Well, while the move was messy we have seen a test of the 1.1972 support this morning and it has held but hasn’t produced any stronger reaction higher yet. To see the upside come under stronger pressure we need a move back above the 1.2000 level again while a break then of 1.2034-37 will confirm stronger gains. These should move through the 1.2066 high and onto 1.2093 at least and probably 1.2125-57. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]While 1.1968-72 supports I feel the wave structure will imply a recovery over a few days towards the 1.2132-63 area at least and at most 1.2193. Only above 1.2200 would cause an earlier stronger move higher. ([B]July 16th[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The 1.1972 level was tested this morning but the bounce hasn’t (so far) been too strong. Thus we must be on the alert for a break of the 1.1970 low seen this morning and if it occurs then we should see follow-through to 1.1918 at least and I then suspect the 1.1874-84 area which is stronger. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]The downside remains though the eventual target may not be as deep as previously anticipated. For now the 1.2136-67 area needs to cap to keep the downward risk for 1.1874-84 at least. ([B]July 13th[/B])


[B]18th July[/B]

Has this morning’s low at 1.1971 satisfied the 176.4% projection in Wave (iii)? Probably and with a bullish divergence the risk does seem that way. Within a Wave (iv) I’d be looking for a minimum of a 41.4% retracement which lies at 1.2125 and probably a 50% correction at 1.2157 but suspect this area should cap.

A break back above the 1.2000 pivot level will help while above the 1.2037 corrective high confirms.

Any direct loss of 1.1970 would imply losses to a 76.4% projection in a Wave v at 1.1874-84 at least.

[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Comprehensive, insightful analysis[/ul]