Pro Commentary Lite 18th May 2007 ... GBPUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.9742
Resistance:1.97601.98001.98191.9845Support:1.97311.97111.96761.9657

Bias:While 1.9710-30 supports there should be a correction back to the 1.9790-00 area
Daily Bullish:The correction stalled just below the 1.9800 resistance and triggered the anticipated losses to the 1.9720-40 area. I do see a small risk this may extend towards 1.9710 but overall the direction today should be higher in a correction. Back above 1.9760 will assist but we should find the recovery stalls around the 1.9790-00 area again – at most 1.9820. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.9820. This would allow follow-through to 1.9840-45 and if this breaks then 1.9873. MT Bullish:Only a move above 1.9880 would reverse the overall direction for a return to 1.9997 and alter the 2.0073 & 2.0131 high although the MT would then suggest gains all the way to 2.0505. (May 16th)Daily Bearish:We have seen the anticipated losses to the 1.9720-40 area and while 1.9760 caps we may just see this extend to 1.9710-20. However, I think that’s it for today. Thus only below 1.9700 would maintain the downward momentum for 1.9657 at least. Care this could cause a pullback. Next support is at 1.9622 and then 1.9575.MT Bearish:The structure is being tested but while the 1.9880 level caps the downside remains intact and should cause an initial move to 1.9745-60 and after a pullback to the 1.9657-76 area at least and probably 1.9575. (May 16th)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

17th May

Losses seen and I feel we have only seen the end of minor Wave iii at 1.9755. This should mean a 50%-58.6% correction at 1.9810-20 should cap for a Wave v to decline to the 1.9720-40 area to complete a new Wave a. Then look for a correction in Wave b before a final decline in Wave c to 1.9657 (daily 50% retracement) at least and possibly 1.9575 (daily 58.6% correction.)

18th May

The 1.9731 low (or possible small extension to 1.9710) should provide the low in Wave a which should be followed by a Wave b remaining below 1.9800-20 again to take price down to the 1.9657 minimum target and probably the 1.9575 level.
Ian Copsey
See Also

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