An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Price: 2.0034
Resistance:2.00602.00932.01382.0166Support:2.00302.00121.99741.9929
Bias:Cautiously we are bearish which should mean the 2.0093-2.0138 area should remain capping
Daily Bullish:Price stalled a few points below the 2.0138 resistance and this is a very, very significant level. If we are to see any further gains we must see the 2.0030 remain intact and cause a reversal back above 2.0060 and then 2.0093 to generate a retest of the 2.0131-38 resistance. Above here would retain the overall bullish tone and allow follow-through to 2.0194 and 2.0225. MT Bullish:We have achieved the 2.0078 target – and just a bit more. We have to be aware of acceleration higher – but only above 2.0138 confirms and suggests 2.0229 and then higher with 2.05 a possible target. (April 18th)Daily Bearish:In some ways we are rather surprised by the peak at 2.0131 as this if this remains intact over the coming weeks it implies a long term bearish move. For now we will concentrate on support at 2.0030 which has just been tested. If this breaks then look for follow-through to 1.9974 at least – care as this could cause a pullback. Breach would extend lower once again to 1.9900-30 which needs to hold to keep alive any direct medium term bullish picture. MT Bearish:We have seen test of the 2.0078 target but also a small breach. We could take a test of 2.0092-00 and at most 2.0138 but for the downside to develop we require a break below 1.9900 to confirm larger losses. (April 18th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
19th April
Well, well, well… the 2.0138 resistance has capped. It is still too early to confirm but this represented a 23.6% expansion of the decline from 1.9548 to 1.7046. If it remains intact over the coming 2-3 months it would actually imply a multi-month decline back to 1.70…
Too early to even rely on that but for now we feel the evidence suggests we should see losses. A small 138.2% projection has been tested at 2.0030 this morning and if this breaks we should begin to see more losses towards an alternative possible Wave iv at 1.9900-30 (being a 50%-58.6% retracement.) Thus, we await this break to confirm a medium term bearish picture.
Ian Copsey
See Also
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