An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Bias:[/B]While 161.38-68 supports there still remains a risk of further gains to 164.22-49
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The 163.82 resistance has held and caused a pullback. This has stalled at the top end of the 161.38-68 support and while this remain intact there is still risk of further consolidation at least and probably a move higher. First resistance is at 162.20 and if this gives way look for a move to 162.66 which could cause a small pullback. A move above 162.70 then suggest a further step higher to 163.30 which again should be watched as this could cap. Next stop is the 163.79 high followed by 164.22-49. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]The recovery suggests an alternative pattern and while 164.22-49 may be tested we need a clean break there to generate a much stronger recovery. ([B]July 31st[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]In the end the resistance at 163.82 held and caused a reversal lower. However, I see good support between 161.38-68 which I feel will hold. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require a break below 161.38 and if seen would begin to threaten the 160.64 low. Next stop would be at 159.85. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]Losses have been much stronger and do appear to imply additional losses. The 160.46-64 area should initially support but while the 164.22-49 area caps there is still chance of a move below 159.60. ([B]July 31st[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
The deeper than anticipated correction higher appears to confirm the 160.64 low as the end of Wave iii and thus we should watch the 41.4% retracement at 163.82 and then the pivot resistance and 50% retracement at 164.22-49. This should mark the end of Wave iv or possibly Wave a of Wave iv. (Given the briefness of the Wave ii correction this does appear likely.)
The move to 16.79 came in 3 waves and I feel the current decline is Wave x and should be followed by another ABC pattern to the 164.22-49 resistance. Any move below the Wave b and 76.4% retracement at 161.38 would imply a flat or expanded flat with support at 159.85.
[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Insightful and invaluable analysis[/ul]