Pro Commentary Lite... 1st March 2007 ... GBPUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.9635

Bias:Care here – but feel that while 1.9600-20 supports there still remains risk to 1.9746-64
Daily Bullish:Volatility here was much more than anticipated and we can only surmise that this is still part of an erratic recovery from 1.9400. Thus we shall watch the 1.9600-20 support and while it holds any reversal back above 1.9660-73 should trigger additional gains through to 1.9712 and probably the 1.9736-46 area. We feel this will hold but should allow for 1.9764. Only above here would imply a retest of the 1.9812 & possibly 1.9846 areas.MT Bullish:We still feel this recovery is corrective and should hold below the 1.9746-64 area. Only break there extends to 1.9812-46 at least above which there is the 1.9915 high. (March 1st)Daily Bearish:The sudden whipsaw down to 1.9517 and back higher was not on our list of possibilities but the recovery does suggest potential for further gains. We suspect these will reach the 1.9736-46 (max 1.9764) area and from here we expect a reversal lower. Only an earlier break below 1.9600 would imply an earlier decline which should quickly move down through the 1.9517 low and down towards 1.9460-64 and eventually 1.9400.MT Bearish:The wave structure is messy but therefore gives more the impression of a choppy correction which we feel will stall in the 1.9746 area. Back below 1.9600 signals losses below 1.9400 eventually. (March 1st)


1st March

The exceptional whippy nature of price here does appear most likely to be part of a correction from 1.9400 and we have adjusted the wave count to show a multiple ABC structure in which we appear to be in the final ABC of a triple three.

We note a 61.8% -66.67% retracement at 1.9718 and 1.9743 and suspect this will hold the move higher in Wave –b- and from there signal losses back below the 1.9400 Wave –a- low.
Ian Copsey
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