Pro Commentary Lite ... 1st May 2007 ... GBPUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 2.0002

Bias:Waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:The breaks above 1.9983 and then 2.0010 have seen a test of 2.0030 thus far and this does seem supportive of additional gains thought these may be limited today. There is support at 1.9968-77 and while this holds there appears to be risk of gains extending towards 2.0042 and then the 2.0067 corrective high (max 2.0088) but we’ll look for this to cap. Thus only breach of the upper resistance would imply a move back to the 2.0131 high.MT Bullish:Failure to break below 1.9956 could mean we shall see additional gains. We require break above 2.0068 to retest 2.0131. If this high is taken out then the next major resistance is around 2.0504. (April 30th)Daily Bearish:Losses were slightly stronger than anticipated but the reversal from 1.9889 does argue against excessive weakness. We do note resistance at 2.0067-88 today and while this area caps we shall expect a pullback at least. For any stronger bearish stance we shall need to see a breach of support at 1.9968 which would force a move down to the 1.9920 pivot support and possibly to retest the 1.9864-89 area.MT Bearish:The reversal from 1.9864 hasn’t quite broken the bearish structure but if there are to be any further losses then we require a quick break back below 1.9864 to extend the downside to 1.9782 and 1.9720-30. (April 30th)


30th April

Losses stalled just above the 138.2% projection at 1.9856 and the sharp recovery does warn that we may see a retest of the 2.0131 high.

Best wait for a break above the 2.0068 corrective high and if seen it would suggest a move to retest the 2.0131 high. Breach would suggest a much stronger rally to the weekly 38.2% expansion at 2.0504.

Only while the 2.0068 high remains intact could we argue the case for a second abc decline.
Ian Copsey
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