Pro Commentary Lite ... 21st February 2007 ... AUDUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 0.7879
Resistance:0.78860.79100.79360.7979Support:0.78700.78470.78240.7809

Bias:We look for a test of the 0.7908-12 area which we cautiously feel will cap for a move lower
Daily Bullish:The 0.7845-55 area supported yesterday and this does highlight the risk of a move to the 0.7908-12 area. However, we feel this will cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 0.7912 and if seen would provoke extension through to the 0.7936 corrective peak at least. This would normally cause a pullback. Next resistance is at the 0.7979 high. MT Bullish:We still remain cautious of the upside and see resistance at 0.7878 and 0.7912. Only above here sets a larger uptrend towards 0.8032. (February 16th)Daily Bearish:No break was seen below 0.7845-55 and thus we feel we should see a move through to the 0.7908-12 area but feel this will cap. From here look for a move back below 0.7780-90 to trigger losses back down to 0.7830-50 which should stall the initial decline. Next support is around 0.7809 and 0.7765-74.MT Bearish:We are a little frustrated with the continued ratcheting higher but until 0.7912 breaks we still feel the major risk is lower in a fresh ABC pattern the first decline ending around the 0.7696-07 area once again. (February 20th)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

20th February

No real change in view with the 76.4% retracement of the decline from 0.7979 to 0.7696 resting at 0.7912 and a 161.8% projection in Wave c lying at 0.7908.

21st February

The move higher has been maintained and this does look like reaching the 76.4% retracement of the decline from 0.7979 to 0.7696 resting at 0.7912 and a 161.8% projection in Wave c lying at 0.7908

As long as this remains below the Wave –b- at 0.7936 we feel this will mark a Wave –x- from where a new ABC pattern should develop with the first Wave (a) declining to the area of the previous lows around 0.7696-07.
Ian Copsey
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