An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 162.67
[B]Resistance:[/B]163.00163.38163.76164.16[B]Support:[/B]162.45162.10161.71161.52
[B]Bias:[/B]We are poised between a bullish and bearish scenario
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The move back above 160.90 triggered solid gains up to just above the 163.24 resistance, stalling at 163.38. I’d prefer to be bullish but think it best to wait to ensure that this morning’s low at 162.45 remains intact. A move higher from here that pushes above 163.38 would imply gains back to the 164.16 target (max the 164.29 high.) This should cause a pullback lower. Only above 164.29 would maintain the upward momentum for 164.70 and 165.58.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]I still see support 159.95-00 but also now see a wav equality target at 159.39. Thus these still need to hold to retain a bullish MT stance. Back above 163.38 would look positive for a retest of 164.29. ([B]20th November[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Yesterday’s gains were positive but the break above 163.24 hasn’t quite been deep enough to provide confidence of straight gains. The low seen this morning at 162.45 is important. If this breaks the risk would appear to be for a reversal lower again. The move would then go through 162.10 and onto 161.52 and probably 161.03 which is likely to cause a correction. Only below sees losses to the 159.95-00 support. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]Friday’s losses came as a surprise and does open the interpretation of the wave structure. However, only below 158.67 would open up larger losses now. ([B]13th November[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
[B]15th November[/B]
The 164.27 level held and I suspect this is the end of Wave –i-. However the reaction from there has not been strong. Note 50% -66.7% retracements at 161.48 and 161.00 which should hold any correction.
Above 164.29 would imply extension high in minor Wave c to the 261.8% projection at 166.25. Watch the 165.00 pivot area on the way.
[B]21st November[/B]
The intervening wave structure is ambiguous and only back above 163.38 would mean we will see a move to 164.16 in Wave a of Wave –iii- else a dip back to 159.95-00 is possible in a 76.4% retracement in Wave –ii-.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]
[ul]
[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Unique and insightful analysis[/ul]