An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 1.4633
[B]Resistance:[/B]1.46611.46831.47121.4742[B]Support:[/B]1.46251.45951.45551.4524
[B]Bias:[/B]We are in mid-range thus work with breaks – max upside 1.4772-00 and downside 1.4486-1.4524
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]How frustrating… Price dipped to 1.4364 before seeing the recovery I had been looking for. However, this does give us two scenarios to play with. The first would be a straight pullback that should stall close to the 1.4712 area but then send price lower. Thus we need a break above there to suggest follow-through to the favored 1.4742-72 resistance (maybe a little above.) If we see direct losses then look at the 1.4486-1.4524 area which, while the 1.4742-72 area is possible, should hold. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]The dip to 1.4390 came in 3 waves and thus I suspect we’ll see this higher – watch 1.4590, 1.4666-96 while an eventual target should develop in the 1.4770-00 area. This should see a move back lower in range. ([B]22nd January[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Loss of the 1.4385-90 area annoyed and with two possible scenarios, one calling for continued sideways ranging and the other suggesting after this correction we see direct losses below 1.4309 we need to be aware of the downside risk (though I feel it’s a bit too early.) There is resistance around 1.4712 and if this holds and we see a break below 1.4486-1.4524 followed by 1.4439 I would expect a retest of 1.4309. In the meantime First watch the 1.4625 support and then 1.4595-00 – loss would take us lower.[B]MT Bearish:[/B]The downside has been much stronger than anticipated but only breach of 1.4385 would threaten the 1.4309 low and then again this needs to break to suggest follow-through to 1.4182 and possibly 1.4134. ([B]22nd January[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
[B]23rd January[/B]
[B]
[/B]
The slight break down to 1.4364 was frustrating and I am now left considering two possible scenarios:
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That yesterday’s low was Wave (a) of Wave (iii) and thus we should soon see Wave (c) of Wave (iii) start – or: -
We are still in a rather wide triangle which would see 61.8%-66.7% projections at 1.4742-72. We should also note that the swings of this are rather wide so allow for closer to 1.4800.
Given that the daily cycles are not due to top out for 1-3 weeks I suspect the triangle is correct. I also feel that Wave (b) has been too sharp. However, work with breaks.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]
[ul]
[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Possibly the best analysis in the market[/ul]