Pro Commentary Lite ... 25th January 2008 ... GBPUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 1.9780
[B]Resistance:[/B]1.97821.98101.98501.9889[B]Support:[/B]1.97351.96861.96571.9610

[B]Bias:[/B]While 1.9782 caps there should be a pullback to around 1.9678-86 before higher to 1.9889-00
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The break above 1.9550 and then 1.9590 high triggered gains all the way to 1.9771 and just above with resistance also at 1.9782. Take care here as this could cause a pullback all the way back to the 1.9678-86 area (max 1.9657) from where I feel we should see further gains back to the 1.9782 high and follow-through to 1.9889-00 which again should cause a pullback. Only a direct move above 1.9782 would see a test of 1.9889-00 directly. Stronger resistance is at 1.9954. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]I’ll take the 1.9335 low as the end of this part of the decline and this should lead to a week or so of upward correction towards 1.9954 and at most 2.0083. However, that area should cap. ([B]23rd January[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Gains have been seen as expected from the 1.9335 low which have progressed well to target. A selling opportunity should come before too long. In fact, where price is right now while I’m writing the 1.9782 area has a good chance of causing a pullback below 1.4740 and 1.4705 towards the 1.9678-86 area. I suspect this will support – at the most 1.9657. Therefore, any further losses will require breach of 1.4650 and if seen would suggest room for follow-through to 1.9558 and possibly 1.9463-95.[B]MT Bearish:[/B]I am taking the 1.9335 low as the base for the correction higher – even though the relationships are a bit loose. Thus only below 1.9335 directly would extend losses to 1.9254 and 1.9188. ([B]23rd January[/B])

[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]

[B]23rd January[/B]

The spike down to 1.9335 was very frustrating but with bullish divergences in the 4 and 8 hour charts I suspect that was the end of Wave –v- and thus the end of Wave © of Wave (iii).

If this is the case then the normal corrective ratios would imply a 41.4% retracement in Wave (iv) at 1.9954 and 50% at 2.0083. Given Wave (ii) was quite deep I suspect the 1.9954 area will hold. If this occurs in 3 waves then we should allow for a more complex correction – which I feel will occur.

Only directly below 1.9335 would resurrect the 1.9188 and 1.9122 targets.

[B]25th January[/B]
Progress is being made with a 138.2% projection in Wave c at 1.9889 and a 161.8% around the 1.9954 target.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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