An exceprt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Bias:We need to be slightly cautious but the 1.3195 and 1.3219-36 areas still look heavy
Daily Bullish:While gains have been seen these have not been that strong and yesterday’s analysis basically still holds true. While 1.3150-70 supports we still feel there is risk for a move to the 1.3219-36 area but cautiously still look for this to cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.3236 and then 1.3257 to keep the upward momentum intact for an eventual test of 1.3296 and 1.3357-67.MT Bullish:Still no break of 1.3195 but there does appear risk that it may get broken by a little. Thus to be cautious wait for a break of 1.3219-36 – then the next target will be the 1.3327-57 area. (February 26th)Daily Bearish:The wave structure is a little messy but we still see weekly cycles pointing lower for a further 4-6 weeks and thus we still prefer to look for a peak to sell into. The most likely area seems to be in the 1.3219-36 area and while this holds, any reversal back below 1.3150-70 would encourage additional losses back to the 1.3080 area and while this should cause a pullback eventually we look for lower. MT Bearish:The 1.3195 resistance is being tested but we still see price as heavy. A move back below 1.3140 and then 1.3080 would generate losses back to 1.2940 and 1.2865-76 initially. (February 26th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The mild break higher is concerning and thus we need watch for potential targets in Wave –c-. In this process we have had to re-label the 1.3080 low as Wave iv of Wave –c- and projections here provide Wave v targets at 1.3223 (61.8%) and 1.3235 (66.67%) which are most likely to hold.
Note projections for Wave –c- are at 1.3233 (223.6%) and 1.3280 (261.8%).
We feel this will complete Wave [x] and allow a return to the downside again with the first Wave [a] around the 1.2865-76 lows.
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