Pro Commentary Lite ... 28th February 2007 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.2191

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:The collapse through not only 1.2279 but also 1.2226 has led to a larger decline and thus we need be careful. There does appear to be risk of additional corrective gains and while 1.2162 supports this should move above 1.2221 to the 1.2237-53 area which we feel should cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.2260 and if seen would assist price back higher towards the 1.2295-05 pivot area which should cap.MT Bullish:It was a large drop but before we follow this there is likely to be additional losses. Above 1.2200-20 would bring back a more bullish picture for a return to 1.25+. (February 28th)Daily Bearish:Loss of the 1.2226 support indeed saw losses to the bottom end of the 1.2145-67 support area. Indeed, this doesn’t look like it is complete but we may just see a correction back to the 1.2237-53 area before the next leg lower. Take care as we may just see a larger sideways correction. Back below 1.2162 assists lower while loss of yesterday’s 1.2142 low would imply losses to 1.2103 and probably the 1.2026-43 area which we tentatively feel will hold. MT Bearish:Loss of 1.2226 has seen test of 1.2145. Now whether this can get all the way back to 1.1878 seems unlikely. Watch the 1.2026-43 area and only below there triggers additional losses to 1.1878. (February 28th)


28th February

Clearly yesterday’s decline means that we need to re-label the wave count. We are doubtful that this means a retest of 1.1878 and in the daily picture we feel there is a risk of an ABC move higher from 1.1878 with 1.2576 being Wave A and this move as Wave B that should end around 1.2026-43, possibly a little higher.

Within the decline from 1.2576 we feel we have seen an initial abc wave with Wave x at 1.2436 and from there it appears that a 5 wave pattern lower developing.

We are still investigating and will update but note the above support.

Ian Copsey
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