Pro Commentary Lite .. 28th March 2007 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.2115

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks though with a mild bullish preference
Daily Bullish:Little in the way of gains yesterday followed by a gradual decline over the day which has reached and marginally penetrated the 1.2105 support. Within this decline we still see potential support around the 1.2082-98 area and while this holds there is still chance of gains re-emerging. To confirm this we need a break back above 1.2125-35 then 1.2158. If seen then look for the upside to extend to 1.2179, 1.2200 and probably the 1.2227-33 area which should cause a pullback. Further resistance is at 1.2281.MT Bullish:The sharp reversal to new highs has placed some uncertainty over the structure. While 1.2100-30 (max 1.2074) supports there is still upward potential but watch resistance at 1.2235-80. (March 23rd)Daily Bearish:Losses have continued to edge lower but thus far without too much momentum. Within this decline we see a small projection around the 1.2082-98 area and before we get too bearish we would like to see this area broken along with the 1.2074 corrective low and if seen would then suggest a retest of 1.2029 at least. Take care here as this should provide a correction at the very least. Breach would extend to 1.1982-87.MT Bearish:We need to keep an open mind but a bearish stance is only resurrected below 1.2029-74. If seen then 1.1933 is the minimum target while a retest of 1.1878 would appear to be more likely. (March 23rd)


28th March

Price still hasn’t clarified whether the 1.2227 peak was a 50% retracement in Wave (x) or whether it is still part of a multiple ABC pattern higher towards the 61.8% retracement at 1.2281.

At the moment we see a small 61.8%-76.4% minor projection at 1.2082-98 which, holding above the prior Wave b at 1.2074 could still provide a spring board for a second ABC pattern higher to 1.2227-33 in Wave a to be followed by a Wave b and Wave c to the 1.2281 resistance.

Below 1.2074 would confirm a move to 1.2029 (care of a possible flat correction) and possibly a 23.6% expanded flat at 1.1982-86.
Ian Copsey
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