Pro Commentary Lite ... 2nd May 2008 ... AUDUSD

An excerpt from Pro Commentary [B]Price:[/B] 0.9331
[B]Resistance:[/B]0.93500.93740.94030.9425[B]Support:[/B]0.92900.92790.92560.9204

[B]Bias:[/B]Mixed – waiting for breaks
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The stronger reversal from the 0.9470 high was not expected directly. I can’t say that the entre structure is clear and it will probably be better to wait for breaks. If we are to see additional gains then we need a break back above 0.9350 initially. If seen it should assist higher for 0.9374 and probably the 0.9403 area which should cause a correction. Any break above 0.9403 should maintain the upward momentum for 0.9430 and possibly the 0.9470 high but this higher area should provide a pullback.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]The picture is unclear though I had expected a new high. However, there does seem to be risk of a sideways consolidation which sees 0.9481-00 cap. Thus only above extends gains above 0.9540. ([B]29th April[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The break below 0.9390-08 generated direct losses back to just above the 0.9290 low. It does seem to have some fairly strong arguments for continued losses. However, I’d prefer to play this one cautiously while I expect the U.S. Dollar to find a high quite soon. I suspect the 0.9290-97 area should provoke a correction and this may even recover as far as the 0.9370 area again. Thus only direct breach of 0.9290 would cause immediate follow-through to 0.9256 and probably the 0.9204-20 support. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]With yesterday’s rally we can possibly raise the reversal level to 0.9390. If this is broken we could be seeing a triangle which would imply losses to around 0.9332. Below there and 0.9290 sees 0.9204-22. ([B]1st May[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]

[B]2nd May[/B]
Having seen a move way down to 0.9300 I doubt the triangle scenario now. It may just be a very deep Wave ii which could trigger gains in Wave iii.
However, I note a 261.8% projection in a Minor Wave iii lower from 0.9470 at 0.9297. This could force a correction in Wave b at the 50% correction around 0.9470 again.
Directly below 0.9290 suggests a Wave equality target in Wave –c- at 0.9220 – just above the 0.9204 Wave –b- low.
While 0.9290 holds and we see a move above 0.9370-75 then it suggests a more impulsive structure higher to 0.9470 and later above 0.9540.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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