Pro Commentary Lite 30th April 2007 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.2042

Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks
Daily Bullish:Well, Friday was a bit of a mess with the dip to the 1.1994 low and then recovery above 1.2098 – only to see reversal from 1.2105. It doesn’t make for an obvious picture and if we are to see any further progress higher then we’ll need to see a break above Friday’s high at 1.2105 to trigger follow through not only above 1.2126-43 but probably even further through the 1.2188 corrective high and to the 1.2230-50 pivot area.MT Bullish:We should be able to lower our break area for additional gains now to 1.2105 – only breach would imply a move back to the old 1.2282-90 resistance. (April 30th)Daily Bearish:The reversal from 1.2098 and then on the second retest of 1.2105 appears to provide a small bias in favor of the downside following through. For this ideally the 1.2065 area should remain capping with loss of 1.2029 implying a retest of 1.1994 and probably breach for 1.1960 at least though the 1.1895 area seems a more likely target. Further support is at 1.1864-78.MT Bearish:We are juggling with two potential bearish structures, one suggesting a base between 1.1911-52 and the other to 1.1864-78. This may provide a base though we shall observe how the decline progresses. (April 26th)


30th April

The failure at 1.2105 on Friday appears to suggest we have seen a Wave (b) of Wave iv. However, the structure is not at all clear but we should look for breaks of the 1.1994-1.2105 extremes for the next move.

The downside would imply the 1.2029 low after the test of 1.2105 may have been Wave i and the 1.2065 high being the 61.8% retracement in Wave ii. A minimum Wave iii target is at the 138.2% extension at 1.1960 but we tend to favor a move down to the 223.6% projection at 1.1895. We also note the larger Wave v target from implies a test of 1.1964-78 at least.

Above 1.2105 would suggest we are seeing a larger rally to the old 1.2282-90 peak in Wave c of a daily Wave [iv] before lower again.
Ian Copsey
See Also

[*]FX-Strategy Pro CommentaryInsightful and unique analysis[/ul]