Pro Commentary Lite ... 30th August 2007 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 115.71

[B]Bias:[/B]115.00-20 should support for gains above 117.12 else see a drop back to 113.69 before higher
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Losses finally stalled at 113.84 and reversed higher sooner than expected. The gains have reached 116.24 so far and while 115.55 holds there is risk of a move up to 116.74-117.12 from where a pullback can be expected. Any earlier drop below 115.50 would indicate support at 115.00-20 that would need to hold to retain a directly bullish structure. Above 117.12 extends to 117.89 and 118.37 at least. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]Unless there is a second dip to 113.69-84 again the overall move should be higher back towards the 117.12 area and then following a correction much further higher to 119.82 and possibly now above 121.00. ([B]30th August[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]While cycles are turning higher we are still at early stages. Thus while I prefer a bullish stance there is one scenario that would trigger a move back to 113.69-84. This would require a break below 115.50 initially and then 115.00. If seen it will raise this risk of a second dip lower. Support also seen at 113.39. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]While cycles appear bullish we are so close to these lows that it would still be possible to see one last attempt lower. Below 112.55 would threaten 111.57 and if this breaks then expect 108.75-109.36 first. ([B]29th August[/B])


[B]30th August[/B]

I have tentatively labeled yesterday’s 113.84 low as Wave (ii). The only risk of seeing this again is in a flat correction back to 113.69-84 and maximum 113.39. A break below the 50% retracement around 115.00-20 will suggest this alternative.

However, it seems more likely that we have seen the full extent of the correction and we should now see Wave (iii) develop. Within this Wave (a) should make its way back towards 117.12 and maximum 117.38. This should be followed by an approximate 50% correction in Wave (b) that could last over the long U.S. weekend. Target for Wave (iii) is at the 138.2% projection at 121.38. En route we should see a small correction from the 119.82 Wave (b) corrective high.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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