Pro Commentary Lite 31st January 2007

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.9620

Bias:While 1.9582-00 supports there seems to be room for a move to the 1.9733-46 area
Daily Bullish:Gains were seen as expected but stalled at 1.9695 from where we have seen a moderately strong pullback. However, while this remains above 1.9582-00 (we favor the higher end) we look for additional gains back above 1.9630 through 1.9663-66 and then above yesterday’s high (could hold for a pullback first) to 1.9733-46 which we feel will cap for a larger pullback. Next resistance is at 1.9805.MT Bullish:We are a little uncertain about the Pound and can merely note the 1.9733-46 resistance followed by 1.9800-40 area. Above here is required to maintain the medium term upward momentum. (January 31st)Daily Bearish:We feel there is probably very little (if any) downside to be seen today. There is risk to revisit the 1.9600 low and at most 1.9582 but to sustain a more bearish stance we would need a break here which should then allow losses down through 1.9547 for 1.9490-1.9512 which should hold. Only below extends to 1.9468-78 and possibly 1.9414.MT Bearish:We feel there may be further to go here but will probably have to allow for 1.9733-46 first but while this caps we could well see losses to 1.9490-10 and later 1.9410-20. (January 31st)


30th January

It looks like the 1.9547 low has completed the first leg lower and while this may be Wave [b] we are tending more towards this being a Wave –a-. There is a small Wave –b- at 1.9733 and this should attract but stall the upside – at least initially and then we need review.

31st January

It looks like we saw a 5-wave move higher to 1.9695 and thus while price remains above the 61.8%-76.4% retracement at 1.9582-00 to complete Wave b we will look for a Wave c to take us back up to the previous Wave b resistance at 1.9733 and possibly just above to 1.9746.

Ian Copsey
See Also

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