An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Bias:Waiting for breaks – but with 164.28 touched we are on warning of a major top having been seen
Daily Bullish:We have seen a test of the 163.00 support with only minor breach and this does look like generating a correction. This appears to have potential to rise above 163.45 to 163.76 but advise care at this resistance level since it could generate the next leg lower. Thus a stronger bullish stance require a break above 163.76 and then 163.9600 to generate follow-through back to the 164.28-34 resistance at least. MT Bullish:We may have seen a major high at 164.28 yesterday. Only above there takes us to 165.05 but there is now little room on the upside before a major reversal lower. (May 30th)Daily Bearish:The 162.95-00 support held and there does look to be potential for a correction to the 163.76-80 area. While this holds we should see a move back down to the 162.95 low again with breach extend losses to 162.39 at least and probably to the 162.18 low around where a further pullback is possible. MT Bearish:It is quite possible we have seen a major high here. A break back below the 162.18 corrective low would add to that view and below 161.07 would generate losses to the 159.60 low. (May 30th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The wave structure continues to be very unclear but yesterday’s peak so close to the 164.34 target as 66.7% projection in a daily Wave (v) does trigger the possibility that this is complete.
To confirm additional losses we need see breaks of the last major lows at 162.18 and 161.07 which should open the floodgates for losses.
Until then we do need to be aware of the (now small) risk of a reversal higher to the 76.4% daily projection in Wave (v) at 165.05.
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