An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Bias:[/B]While 1.4108-38 supports there is no change to the expectations of additional gains
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Yesterday’s pullback broke below the ideal 1.4174-96 support but held in the next at 1.4138. I suspect this may well have formed a low but we have to be aware of deeper supports at 1.4108 and maximum 1.4078. For a direct recovery we need a move above the 1.4180 peak and then the 1.4201 corrective high. Once seen it would spur gains to the 1.4249 level at least. Here we need be careful as if this holds then we could see further sideways consolidation. Above 1.4250 -> 1.4281 and probably 1.4353.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]Gains have been developing well and while there is a small risk of short term consolidation the next rally will make it to 1.4353 minimum and now has potential to 1.4424 and possibly as high as 1.4490. ([B]3rd October[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The downside was held by the 1.4130-46 support. There are deeper support levels at 1.4108 and maximum 1.4078 but there is less certainty that these will be seen. Thus, only while 1.4180-1.4201 caps and if we see a move back below the 1.4138 low will price make it to 1.4108 which I still feel will hold. However, if this dips as far as 1.4078 then the chances of a longer sideways 1.4080-1.4280 correction become stronger. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]While 1.4078-1.4108 supports the risk is still higher to 1.4424-90. Thus only below 1.4070 suggests a stronger risk of losses with the first stop being around 1.3827. ([B]3rd October[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
The deeper pullback from 1.4281 now suggests that this was the end of Wave iii of Wave © in Wave (iii).
We have three potential targets on the upside:
· 1.4353 – where Wave (iii) will have projected by 176.4% and Wave © by 138.2%
· 1.4424 where a 176.4% daily Wave –iii- target lies
· 1.4490 where Wave (iii) will have projected by 261.8% and Wave © by 176.4%.
At the moment the 1.4138 low represents a 41.4% retracement in Wave iv and could generate a 61.8% target in Wave v around the 1.4424 area and a 76.4% target around 1.4485-90.
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