Pro Commentary Lite ... 4th April 2008 ... EURUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B] Price:[/B] 1.5663

[B]Bias:[/B]Above 1.5731-56 reverts to the upside for new highs - below 1.5575 & 1.5510 extends to 1.5454
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]The losses from 1.5700 looked encouraging for a while but the reversal from 1.5510 has provided an ambiguous structure. If we are to see gains extend we should ideally see the 1.5612-23 are support. This would provide potential for 1.5731-56 at least. It is break at this higher resistance that would trigger stronger follow-through and move to 1.5826 at least. Take care there as it could hold. Breach would attack the 1.5895-01 highs once again.[B]MT Bullish:[/B]Intermediate moves have confused but still a direct break back above the 1.5725-50 area is required to spur price to 1.5901 and above we need watch 1.5934, 1.5985 and 1.6065. Next major resistance is at 1.6245. ([B]4th April[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]The downside was looking fine for a while but the low at 1.5510 was rather confusing. I’ll not get bullish until above 1.5731-56 and ahead of that a move 1.5612-23 is possible. Any stronger decline will need this support to break. If seen then the stronger risk is lower to 1.5510 and probably through for 1.5454 which I suspect will hold. This would imply an eventual test back at 1.5340. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]All looked ok for a while yesterday but to see the 1.5340 low again we’ll need to see a break of the 1.5575-85 area. On the way is support at 1.5454 but a pullback should be brief. ([B]3rd April[/B])


[B]4th April[/B]

We still face the same decision between bullish and bearish structures. Yesterday’s move down to 1.5510 and back towards 1.5700 could be described as an expanded flat although this would imply a move to the 1.5731-56 area. This would be a deep pullback in Wave b of Wave iii and this is difficult to accept but keep it in mind anyway. While is caps we could still see Wave iii decline to the 223.6% projection at 1.5454 followed by a pullback in Wave iv to be followed by a retest of the 1.5340 low in a flat correction.
Any earlier move above 1.5731-56 would imply that we are seeing Wave –v- higher. Wave –c- will equal Wave –a- at 1.6065. However, at this stage I would be cautious on any move above 1.5901 in case we see a double top to provide the daily bearish divergence.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

[li]FX-Strategy Pro Commentary[/li]Comprehensive analysis to guide you through the trading day[/ul]