Pro Commentary Lite ... 5th February 2008 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Price:[/B] 106.74
[B]Resistance:[/B]106.85107.07107.45107.88[B]Support:[/B]106.57106.15105.75105.40

[B]Bias:[/B]While 106.57 continues to hold the emphasis should remain higher to 107.45
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]Price did rally but stalled at 107.07. It doesn’t cause great problems for the upward preference but we need price to remain above this morning’s 106.57 low. A break then above 107.07 would extend the upside to 107.45 which should cap for a pullback. Next resistance is at 108.77-88. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]Recent trading has been messy but has remained above the 104.95 low as suggested and thus I remain cautiously bullish for 107.88, 108.60-96 and 109.74 at the very least. ([B]4th February[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Price gains stalled lower than expected but the support between 106.50-75 has yet to break. Indeed, before getting too bearish we shall need this break to confirm losses which would then imply a drift down to 106.10-20. Below there extends the downside back to 105.75 and possibly 105.40. I still feel the 104.75 low should remain intact. [B]MT Bearish:[/B]We are seeing the expected correction from the 104.95 target and this should last for a while. Selling opportunities should be considered around 109.80-110.11. Below 104.95 sees losses to 103.44. ([B]25th January[/B])

[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]

[B]5th February[/B]

This is as slow as any rally could get… Given this slowness it is likely we are in a multiple ABC pattern in which the 105.75 low was Wave x.

From there I think we saw Wave a of Wave iii of a new Wave –a- that should make its way back to the 107.88 area. This morning’s low at 106.57 was a 50% retracement in Wave b and thus we should see Wave c of Wave iii rise to the 138.2% projection at 107.45. From there look for a Wave iv correction and final rally in Wave v to the area of the first high at 107.88. Then a Wave –b- should develop…

Any earlier break below 106.57 could suggest a recycling lower in Wave x to 105.40-70 again.
[B]Ian Copsey[/B]
[B]See Also[/B]

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