An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
[B]Bias:[/B]Cautiously I feel a cap has been seen but we need a break below 2.0046-58 to confirm
[B]Daily Bullish:[/B]We have seen a break above the 2.0194-00 resistance but a high at 2.0224 and this is around the prior trend support level. I feel there is a good chance of a high having been seen therefore. However, there is support at 2.0146-58 and while this holds there is still a small chance we could see a second rally back above 2.0224-32 and to the 2.0268 area which also provides good resistance. Next resistance is at 2.0317. [B]MT Bullish:[/B]I feel the recovery stopped short of the ideal 2.0268 target and the downside should now develop. Thus only above 2.0232-68 would maintain an upside momentum for 2.0317 and max 2.0415. ([B]5th September[/B])[B]Daily Bearish:[/B]Although the move higher was deeper than expected it does seem to have held below the prior support line thought there isn’t too much evidence from momentum. Thus I’d prefer to be slightly cautious here and only on a break of the 2.0146-58 would it suggest that further losses will be seen directly. If seen then look for the decline to extend to 2.0091 and then around the 2.0041 low which should cause a small correction. Further support is then found at 1.9960 and 1.9915-41.[B]MT Bearish:[/B]With the trend support broken we should see losses all the way back to the 1.9621-49 area initially from where a pullback is expected ahead of further losses. ([B]5th September[/B])
[B]ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS[/B]
It seems as if the Wave (x) stalled at 2.0232 and thus we should be seeing the start of a new Wave (a) lower which is likely to reach the 1.9621-49 area. Within this we appear to have seen Wave –i- at 2.0072 and I look for Wave –ii- to end between the 61.8% and 76.4% retracements at 2.0171-94 which should also retest the prior support line.
Once we have established the peak in Wave –ii- then we can generate a target in Wave –iii- but I suspect this will be at a minimum around 1.9868.
The pullback was almost 100% but should have completed now but to be safe look for a break of a 2.0146-58 being the area of a minor Wave iv if indeed we are still in a wave higher.
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