Pro Commentary Lite ... 7th March 2007 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 116.35

Bias:Cautiously while 116.08-19 supports there can still be direct gains to 117.82+ else see a dip first
Daily Bullish:Gains seen as expected which stalled just short of 116.93 from where a sharp correction has been seen. While this remains above 116.08-19 there is still a directly bullish structure. A move back above 116.50-70 will generate further strength to retest 116.88 and while a pullback is possible this should eventually lead to a move to 117.82 at least and potentially to around the 118.10-20 area.MT Bullish:The 114.75-115.25 area has held thus far and cautiously we feel a slow choppy grind higher is possible to above 120 but should then turn lower again. (March 7th)Daily Bearish:Gains have been broadly in line with expectations and thus only a break below 116.00-10 would imply a more choppy correction. If break is seen watch supports at 115.82 and 115.57 with the lower expected to hold. Any breach of this lower support would threaten a retest of the 115.16 low but at this point we feel it still may well hold. Next larger support is around the 114.42 major low. MT Bearish:The 116.25 support gave way and this implies a base around 115.20-25 and max 114.75-85. Thus only below here would see losses continue towards 113.20-40. (March 5th)


7th March

The rally so far is not too clear although we suspect the move to 116.66 was a Wave i which is being followed by a shallow expanded flat in Wave ii. This would imply a 138.2% Wave iii projection around 118.00-10. However, do keep an eye on the 117.82 Wave b resistance also.

Any break below the 116.09 area (being a 38.2% correction in Wave ii) would suggest an alternative pattern with yesterday’s 116.88 high possibly being a Wave –a-.
Ian Copsey
See Also

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