Pro Commentary Lite April 10th 2007 ... USDCHF

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.2226

Bias:Care advised but the decline does appear to suggest additional losses but wait for loss of 1.2200-06
Daily Bullish:The 1.2281 resistance held perfectly and the losses from there do have a more bearish look. To revert back to a bullish picture we need the 1.2206 area to support and then any break above 1.2255-60 would allow a retest of 1.2282 and probable follow-through to 1.2328 and 1.2354-63 which is likely to cause a correction. Next resistance is at 1.2402 and 1.2436.MT Bullish:The failure to break lower is causing the wave structure to develop a potential strong break higher. A move above 1.2281-00 would heighten this with resistance then at 1.2354, 1.2402 and 1.2525. (April 9th)Daily Bearish:Reversal from 1.2281 does appear more positive for the downside. However, before getting too bearish we feel it would be best to wait for break of 1.2206 which should then allow the downside to come under stronger pressure back to 1.2158-82. Again, break here is required to trigger stronger losses through 1.2122 and back to the 1.2029-74 area. MT Bearish:The downside hasn’t developed particularly well although the 1.2268-81 resistance area remains intact. Only if 1.2145-55 breaks would we look for a move below 1.2029 towards 1.1878 again. (April 9th)


10th April

It certainly looks as if we may have seen a Wave –x- at the 61.8% retracement at 1.2281. This would imply additional losses but since we have had only two ABC structures higher it may be prudent to keep in mind the possibility of a third ABC pattern with a 50%-61.8% retracement in a second Wave x between 1.2158-82.

Until a break at 1.2158 we must keep in mind a possible third ABC structure that could see a move to the 1.2328-54 area at least.

Below 1.2158 would then suggest a further ABC pattern lower with the first Wave (a) expected to stall around the 1.2029-74 area.
Ian Copsey
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