Pro Commentary Lite April 23rd 2007 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 118.84

Bias:119.00 has capped – allow for 119.31 but overall the downside is more likely to below 117.60
Daily Bullish:We have seen the 119.00 level hold and this may well remain intact. However, we also note resistance around 119.31. Therefore any bullish stance will require a move above 119.31 which if seen would spur price back to the 119.85 high and probably further towards an eventual 120.40-50 target which should cap. Next resistance is then found at 121.18-34. MT Bullish:We feel there is a strong chance we saw a peak at 119.85. Thus only while 117.50-60 remains intact is there any chance we see a final attempt higher above 119.85 and to 120.25-53. (April 20th)Daily Bearish:We feel we are seeing the end of the current correction higher with the 119.00 and 119.31 resistance points likely to hold. Thus from there a break back below 118.52-62 would encourage price back lower towards 117.60-90 which should provide a small pullback. Next support lies at much further lower at 116.70-74. MT Bearish:Breach of 118.10 suggests that 119.85 was a major peak and thus the next few weeks should see a retest of the 115.16 low and eventual break for 113.21-42. (April 19th)


20th April

We feel the move to 117.60 was deep enough to suggest the downside has started and we feel the 61.8% retracement at 119.00 should cap for additional losses initially back to 117.60 and on breach towards 116.27-33 and probably 115.16-40.

23rd April

The 119.00 level was a 61.8% retracement of the Wave –a- decline. We should be aware of the 76.4% retracement at 119.31. With these peaks holding we expect to see a 161.8% projection in Wave –c- to 115.30-60.

Only an earlier break above 119.85 extends the upside to the 76.4% retracement in Wave (b) at 120.52.
Ian Copsey
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