An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
Bias:Mixed – waiting for breaks – possibly more bearish
Daily Bullish:Recovery was seen from just above the 1.3241 support, the 1.3250 area being a pivot support. This is either part of a renewed test higher or just part of a complex correction. The 1.3346-50 area appears crucial and before getting too bullish we really need a break above here. If seen then look for follow-through to 1.3373 and probably the 1.3400-10 area again which should cause a pullback. Above the 1.3410 high sees next major resistance at 1.3463. MT Bullish:We have looked at the wave structure and while there is some ambiguity we still cautiously favor a move through to 1.3559 before the downside comes under greater pressure. 1.3211-41 should support for this. (March 26th)Daily Bearish:The pullback from 1.3253 was very sharp and leaves the wave structure a little unclear. However, if we do have to place any preference it will be on the downside. However, for this the 1.3346-50 area should cap with loss of 1.3310 and then 1.3280-89 being the trigger for a renewed test of 1.3241-53 which is likely to hold on first test for a correction. The ultimate target in this scenario should be in the 1.3200-11 area.MT Bearish:While the revised expectation of a move to 1.3559 has not totally broken down we should be aware of the earlier risk of loss of 1.3200-40 causing a sooner decline to 1.3070-00 initially, then 1.2865. (March 26th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We still see the 50%-61.8% correction between 1.3200-40 in Wave –b- but need to allow for an earlier resumption of the move higher. We tend to feel that yesterday’s recovery to 1.3346 may well be a Wave x and thus we should see a second ABC pattern down to 1.3241 and then 1.3200-11 which should complete Wave –b- and allow Wave –c- to develop to the daily expanded flat target at 1.3559.
Any direct break above 1.3350 would suggest this rally is already under development.
Any loss of 1.3200 would suggest the 1.3410 peak was a small overrun in Wave Fb of flat correction from 1.3367-1.2865 and cause a direct decline down to the 1.2865 low.
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