Pro Commentary Lite .. March 27th 2007 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 116.97
Resistance:117.15117.43117.65118.07Support:116.60116.32116.00115.75

Bias:We look for 116.32-37 to support for gains to around 118.01-14
Daily Bullish:Losses progressed rather quickly falling in steps through yesterday’s support areas and stalling at 116.37. We feel this area around 116.25-32 should support and allow a move back above this morning’s peak at 117.15 towards 117.39-44 at least. Take care here, just incase the recovery is as low as the one from 116.25 to 118.41. Above 117.44 see resistance at 117.65 and then the favored target at 118.01-14. Only above 118.41-48 is more bullish to 118.67.MT Bullish:Yesterday’s sharp drop looks more bearish. Thus now we should expect limited gains and only above 118.14-48 would allow extension to 118.67-00 before lower again. (March 29th)Daily Bearish:The break below 117.25-28 saw pullbacks at the 117.09 and 116.85 supports en route the final low at 116.37. We do feel that we are close to a larger decline but first there should be one final recovery. Thus only a break below 116.25-32 would appear to trigger this any earlier. If seen then look for losses to move down through 115.75 to the area of the 115.16 low which could provide a minor pullback before lower again. MT Bearish:The decline to 116.37 looks more like part of a consolidation and thus while price now holds below 118.14-20 we will look for break below 116.25, 115.75 & 115.16 en route 113.21-42. (March 29th)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

29th March

The break below 116.85 saw a decline to the 66.7%-76.4% projection around 116.32-58 within a triangle structure. The only concern we have about this is the particularly deep peak in Wave ^c but there are no rules on triangles looking pretty…

If this is a triangle then expect the 61.8%-66.67% projection in Wave ^e to end around 118.01-14. Do allow for mild breaches. That would complete Wave (b) of Wave (iii) and thus we shall look for a subsequent decline to the 261.8% projection at 113.21 – remembering the 113.42 corrective low.

Above 118.48 implies a deeper 61.8% correction to 118.67.
Ian Copsey
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