It’s all “in your head”, my statistics show me that 50% of the times that I close before my stop, had I left it alone it would have been a profitable trade, so that means I could of had 25% more overall profitable trades, which means more Alpha. I hate it when I do this, even when the stats show I shouldn’t. Yup, all in my head.
The Ever Zombie VIPER
So true bro.
So funny you say this. I’ve spent 100’s of hours back testing these boxes and patterns and have come to the same conclusion. But after chasing 10 pips for a couple of years, opening up and widening the stops and going for a higher profit factor is new to me. I like the buzz…
Some aussie hip hop bro
Woke up today and what have we got. Surprise Surprise, my initial analysis was good yielding a profit of 2n (n being risk).
Which covers the loss I had trying to re-enter the market on Monday after not having faith and getting spooked. Mind you, if I saw this pattern again I would still take the trade.
So that leaves the greedy trade. What to do with that? Moved TP for a 1n return.If I can get out in the next hour I will but then again I made the decision to take the trade, best I man up and own it.
Finally out of the greedy trade. Back testing has demonstrated that my analysis is valid for about 2 hours, after that it’s 50:50. And exposure to the market equals increased risk. So after 24 hours I’m happy to take a 0.6n return.
As for today, a wise member (Jake) once said,
"Sometimes the best position to have is to have no position."
I think today maybe be one of those days. There is just no volatility leading up to the ECB Monetary policy statement tomorrow night.
Hey Dude, that is how a lot of these folks around here got hammered, they took positions based on 1hr entries and tried to hold for days, not even realizing or better said, admitting, that after a couple of days the premise and maybe even the context of the trade changed, thus invalidating the trade, so instead of taking a discretionary stop, to live to fight another day, they allowed a couple of trades to blow them up. Taking a multiday trade on a 1 hour entry is a really bad idea. Oh and No Position, is a good position on days like today. Just hit a high water mark yesterday, and well, I don’t want to give it back, so, no trades for me. Now if I could just find someone to bother, I know, let me slither over to kreslik and harass TRO, yeah that’s the ticket.
The Ever Harassing VIPER
Enormously valuable thing to know, there - and something few traders analyze well enough.
End of week update
OK, on Thursday took two trades,
found a nice little supply zone just above the 1.17 level, got sux into a long trade but was able to exit and reverse for a 3n return.
Friday, I came down with a migraine. Unfortunately I suffer really bad from them. Tried to get some trades away but quickly released I had no idea what I was doing so exited to do a minimum amount of damage to the account.
It is an important lesson to learn. If your not in the right head-space don’t trade.
At the end of week three account is up 40%
Isn’t it amazing, the junky punters out there all want an instant fix. Here I have given them one. Yet no interest.
Okay @_bob - You have my attention. !
BAsically I am a longer term contrarian and never made any pips at all intraday - I tried paper trading it a number of times always losing pips every day. However, I am retired now and only do freelance work, so I tried again last week or so - on 3 separate days, and day1 I lost 36 pips, day 2 I made 70 pips by being lucky, although I was 4 pips up for the rest of the day apart from the luckand stopped trading that day after I got out of the retracement on the lucky spike and day 3 I had 5 winners 3 losers for +35 pips.
Going to take the dog walkies now, but when I get back, I shall read this thread from the beginning.
Is the book you reference at the beginning, really the best you have found on this stuff ?
40% on a $1,000 in 3 weeks - is quite remarkable 
How’d ya go bro. Interesting read from where I started to where it is I am now. [quote=“Falstaff, post:235, topic:67048”]
Is the book you reference at the beginning, really the best you have found on this stuff ?
[/quote]
Bob Volman, Nicolas Darvas and Sam Seiden are my three wise men.
So, you should have figuring out I like to get a trade off Monday morning during the Asian session. Today no difference. Lets see if we can start the week on a winner. Maybe I’ll add to the losses from the end of last week.
Morning Bob, in the trade summary pic, the X axis runs 0 to 50 - is that the number of trades?
Not quite sure what your looking at my friend.
Now I’ve figured it out. Yes that represents total trades taken for this three week period.
Because I’m using such a high %risk, I’ll only every have 1 or 2 trades on at any one time , 4 possibly 5 trades max a day. With that said, the strategy is designed for a risk factor of 0.4% to keep draw down at 10% and allow multiple trades. I’m currently using 2% because of the low account value. I’m happy to take on a bit of draw down trying to build capital quickly (and by quickly I mean a couple of years).
Hi Bob, have you traded the EURHKD with your strategy, moves almost candle for candle with the EURUSD and does not appear to range (1min - 5min TF) as much.
Both Pepperstone and IC offer a larger pip range with reasonable spread.
The Asian session makes it hard to find pairs that aren’t chopped out or flat during our day. (Margaret River…)
I have coded a Breakout Indicator (cTrader) which uses a Box to ascertain if price is Ranging, Trending and alerting when a Breakout occurs. See Charts Below.
Hope they are legible…
Making notes as I go @_bob I’m up to post 109 where you’ve just brought in the 4 tickscales and about 800 indicators - lol. Yes it’s an interesting journey so far and I’m particularly impressed you’re posting trades in real time - unlike so many we see.
It’s now 9:30 am Mnday 30 Oct here and I was up too late to catch the action - It does seem that some pips are easier to catch than others. 
Status update. Out of the first trade. Made 1.5n And have decided to take a short
It does stand to reason that when trading this method that an exit signal in one direction becomes an entry signal in the opposite. It also stands to logic I am wrong 50% of the time. Especially when I forget to check upcoming news 
I’ve got a big mouth and talk the talk. Now I make things from milk and warehouse shitze. I have no financial background. Never worked in a pit. Managed funds bla bla bla. So I’ve got to back it up somehow, what better way than with a live trade. Not always easy to do but.
I wonder how many have evidence of how they traded from 2 to 3 years ago?
Maybe it’s just my newbieness, but I am predicting price turning around and heading back up towards 1.1700 before falling to 1.1400… that would be way too long of a time frame for your system but I am seeing that 1.1610 has been holding as a short-term support level over the last couple trading days.
[quote=“jseymour84, post:244, topic:67048”]
I am predicting … has been…[/quote]
Two of my most hated terms bro and exactly the reason why one trades this way.
I’m no good at predicting. Never have been, never will be. And just because something has been doesn’t mean it will.
This way all one has to do is listern
Slightly off topic, but, in your opinion, is your method good for a part-time trader? I know that you have a full-time job so I am probably answering my own question. I only have three hours after work during the Asian session to trade (assuming I skip the gym which I don’t like to do) and am looking for an approach that can work with just a few hours a day. I am not looking for huge profits at only three hours a day but my thought was to setup swing trades Sunday afternoon on higher time frames and then hitting the tick charts Mon-Thu for short-term trades.
My method is good cause it works for me. But this has been my primary approach for the past 3 years. And I think that has to be the primary message that has to be taken away from this thread. Be true to yourself and just keep doing whatever it is that works for you. I reckon if you keep doing what your’re doing over in your journal for the next three years then the “teachers” might just become the students.
