Simple… Trade from the Daily chart, if yesterday a sell then today a sell. That’s the system teaches you…
I hope it help you…
Hey Nikitafx,
A reply for your ‘pure price action’ thread
I just want to ask something…
You mentioned ’ If yesterday was a buy, then today is a buy., and sell then is a sell '
So, how do you explain there’s ’ Yesterday was a buy, but today is a sell ’ based on historical chart
I’m a newbie in forex…
Hope to get your reply soon, thanks in advance!
We ignore all signals that go contra to the direction of daily bias.
The short pullback candle signalled a buy but we would have lost money had we bought there because the D TF and W TF were heavily bearish. So we entered a sell at a bounce on yesterdays resistance area.
We trade with bias as guide to direction.
Otherwise we cannot read lower TF Price Action due to too many false signals generated.
I just replied to your personal message.
Lo and Behold you post the same thing here.
Anyway Ill try to reply again here so others who are reading might be able to participate too.
Price cannot go in one direction alone.
So we cannot expect a sell to be a continuous sell or a buy to be a continuous buy.
If we look at a chart. There are two extremes that price can be on a given time frame ( TF ).
At the top, or the bottom.
We sell when it hits the top, buy when it hits the bottom.
Now here in lays the detail that becomes the devil.
Monthly, W, D, H4, H1, Min 30, Min 15, Min 5 and Min1 TFs all have their own top and bottom.
What might be the top of Min30, might just be in the middle of H1 in an up move. And that middle price level of H1 that is moving up might just be the beginning of a up move on Weekly TF.
So by the time Weekly TF hits its maximum upper level in a few months time, H1 would have broken its higher level again and again to reach newer and newer highs and heights.
So price essentially forms a sort of a virtual ladder in its steady climb upwards.
Once weekly hits its up, it reverses and comes down. On its way down the flight of stairs, price will again bounce up and down on the H1 chart exactly on the same levels or there abouts give and take a few pips, just like how it would be when we walk down a flight of stairs. This is called historic price action.
Now why does price go up on smaller TFs if the bigger TFs are bearish and vice versa when its bullish?
Well without going into the detail of how the market works, just imagine price being the sole of your feet or shoes. Now imagine how that level moves when you are moving one foot down from a higher level to a lower level of stairs on your way down. You lift your foot a little higher than where it was earlier and than move it lower.
Well price moves pretty much the same way. It does not fall in one go from point A to B. It moves in waves.
So our game plan is to figure out where these levels are, figure out what is the higher TF price doing, and than try to jump into the action at a level that guarantees us a profit.
The tough part of trading is figuring out which is a retracement and which is reversal.
Why? A retracement on D TF is a reversal on say min 15 chart. A retracement on a Monthly chart could be big enough for it to be taken as a reversal on the D TF.
That is why you see that price does not move in a linear motion.
So big institutional players who are the market makers do not buy because a currency is cheap per say and sell because its expansive and ripe for them to take profit if compared to another currency in the sense the real world sense that we are used to seeing and dealing with.
They sell and buy based on a relative value. What is this relative value? Relative to what? Well this is what we see as the price levels. The price waves. The flight of stairs.
This is how and why D TF might go sell sell sell than buy buy than a big long sell than a small sell than a big buy before continuing as a sell if we look at it as separate candles.
Its just the big players batting price from their perspective over priced and under priced levels.
Figure out where these levels are and we will be profitable because the big boys are going to be bating the price like a ping pong ball back and forth, up and down from these areas.
Hi Nikita, I’m curious, how do you decide what to do with PA when it is a draw, like for example yesterday’s AUDJPY Day TF seems to be neither buy or sell biased. Do you move up a timeframe to make a further determination? I’m looking at the past few days for AUDJPY and I am really not sure where to go with it. I feel like traders were waiting for the Fed meeting, and now they have that info but that didn’t seem to provide any strong push in one direction or another. Thoughts? Thanks! - sean
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This is the problem with you guys. You always come up with the hard questions!
Now AJ follows AU more than it correlates with UJ.
So its safe to say if you see a formation to short AU, than AJ will most probably follow the same, provided AJs charts support this.
So what does AJs chart telling me?
Well its probably going to end up higher than the current resistance its at.
Will I go short? Yes, Around 82.300 or higher if SL is acceptable and signal to short is there but I will reduce risk to a bare minimum because of we see D TF candles, the entire week, attempts to break 82.030 to go lower has failed.
If yesterdays candle had opened lower than that level than yes I might be a little bit more comfortable.
So conclusion>?
I stay out of AJ for the time being until I see something I like.
For me, that’s the key point - if a chart looks mixed, simply don’t trade it.
Personally, I think that paxgaea’s question answered itself. If AUD/JPY (or any Pair, for that matter) is giving a mix of buy and sell signals then I stay out until it is clear. The key advantage of trading multiple pairs is that we can ignore the mixed charts and only go for the purest, most obvious setups. Trading a chart that is not giving a clear setup is an account killer, imho.
I’m currently long USD/CAD, short GBP/USD and short AUD/USD and while they might not all work out, I was getting a clear signal from the chart at the moment I placed each trade. Never trade something unclear would be my advice! There’s always another trade just around the corner.
Anyway, sorry to butt in, Niki!
ST
Your input has always been very much appreciated ST.
I just shorted AU before reading your post here.
I am in with a smaller risk than I should because of the ECB thing later in the day.
I think markets were ripe for a short had this not been the begininng of the month with all those news lined up.
Thank you - I guess I’m an insecure old soul at heart lol.
Glad to hear that you’re aboard the AUD train - misery loves company, after all, and it has not started out that great this morning… But yes, there are a few factors lining up for a short - we’re in a rising channel which if it continues makes a short the next play, we’re rejecting a round number (1.0500) which has previously acted as S&R, it’s also a 61.8 Fib rejection in there, Price is overextended away from the moving averages, there was another reason that doesn’t come to mind right now but yes, it looks a decent setup to me. It will likely faff around a little today with all the news on the horizon but I’m sticking with it as if it drops the R:R makes it my kind of thing. These trades pay off over the long haul.
Anyway, that’s a (typically) longwinded way of saying that I agree with you!
ST
What a day today, short on AU and NU but unfortunately hit my SL for the long wick.
You, me and our friend ST all got hit on that wick Sharebazar.
If it was not for news day, the short was very obvious and a confirmed trade.
Well patience, The next trade will be better.
Just dont guess. Use the higher TFs more than the lower.
Honestly speaking I was short on AU and NU from yesterday, I was on the trade whole day but when I came home and sit down with the chart I was thinking that day is gone so price will move up during the asian session so I just took 2 pips from NU and gave 2.5 pips to AU and closed both pair, you will not believe it the minute I closed both pair price just drop on my face.
I went to coma for few second.
Immediately I switch off the computer and went to do something else.
Today you know what happened.
Anyway now I am very much patience about to open a position, and yes I am watching the weekly TF with the D TF.
One thing I can say for sure now All this patience and discipline I just learned from this thread.
A great thanks to you Nikita and Bob.
Hello guys, first of all congratulations to you all, especially to Nikita. I trade with indicators, but for some months I have been studying price action because I’d like to be complete (actually I sometimes write in the section about fundamental analysis).
Of, course I went through babypips school, now I’m reading Steve Nison’s books and I’m studying something else about price action. I spent 5 hours to read this thread and another thread called “Forex price action”, I would like to help and learn, so I’ll post here my graphs and I will write here my ideas.
You know I also want to learn so I will write here my questions too.
This is the first question: in the first part of this thread I saw something like “daily chart to understand the trend and H1 to open your trade”, now I read something like “weekly chart to understand the trend and daily to open your trade”, is it right?
Of course the larger the timeframe the most accurate the results I think, but… who’s following the first idea daily and H1 and who’s following weekly and daily? I usually trade with H1, H4 and daily charts.
Thank you and congratulations again 
Great post… :57:
This is my idea, I hope it helps
Don’t need to say I will open a short position lol
PS: Sorry for stochastic, I know you don’t use indicators but it is my way of trading 
I would like to thank all of the contributors of this thread for helping me pay for college. without you all i would never have been able to pull it off.
Happy to hear it worked out for you.
Also glad to see this thread bumped back to the first page. I really enjoyed this thread
“Enjoyed”?
As in past tense?
Is it all over here?
Where’s Nikita?
It not over till the fat lady sings. Unless Nikita went and gained 300 pounds I think we are good lol. Just I have not seen any activity on here lately. Hopfully the bump will liven things up a little.
Open EU trade yesterday but lack of time loss 8 pips. Otherwise I can make 30 pips. There is always a next time.